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As companies like SpaceX and Virgin Galactic make waves in space tourism, how long does the rest of the world have to wait before we can all become astronauts?
ADVERTISEMENTAt his inauguration, US President Donald Trump pledged to plant a flag on Mars. “We will pursue our manifest destiny into the stars,” he said on Monday, “launching American astronauts to plant the stars and stripes on the planet Mars.”The comment elicited a big thumbs-up from Tesla and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk, who hasn’t been shy about his ambition to not only reach but also colonise the red planet. In a speech following the inauguration, which included that salute, Musk said, “Can you imagine how awesome it will be to have American astronauts plant the flag on another planet for the first time?”But how close are we really to being able to take a person to Mars, and what are the hopes for the man on the street of taking a trip into space?Is it possible to take a holiday into space?Space tourism is a reality. In fact, the first space tourist took his trip nearly a quarter of a century ago, when Dennis Tito joined the Soyuz TM-32 mission in April 2001.Since then, around 60 tourists have already travelled into ‘space,’ although most of these have been on suborbital joyrides, only briefly leaving the atmosphere before returning to Earth.Leading the way is Richard Branson’s Virgin Galactic, launched back in 2004. Although the company has had some setbacks over the years, it has successfully completed seven commercial flights over the past two years with its VSS Unity space plane.But these flights aren’t exactly reaching the moon. The VSS Unity travels to around 90 km above the Earth’s surface, which reaches the definition of space in NASA’s book, defined as 80 km above sea level. However, the Fédération Aéronautique Internationale (FAI) defines space as beginning at 100 km. Alongside Virgin Galactic, Amazon billionaire Jeff Bezos created the Blue Origin project to take paying passengers into space. The New Shepard, his reusable passenger rocket, has flown eight crewed space flights since 2021.Then there’s Musk’s own bid for interplanetary exploration, conducted under his SpaceX company. There are a lot of moving parts to this business, from the huge (and regularly exploding) Starship to the incredible Falcon 9 launchers that bizarrely guide themselves back down to the launch pad for reuse.The tourism part of SpaceX is undertaken by its Crew Dragon spacecraft, a highly automated spaceship designed to be accessible to civilians with little to no training. Fifteen crewed launches have taken place, 10 on behalf of NASA and five purely commercial.Although SpaceX draws attention for its rocket launches and Starlink constellation, the founding ethos of the company was to make human life multi-planetary. Specifically, its goal is to colonise Mars.”History is going to bifurcate along two directions. One path is we stay on Earth forever, and then there will be some eventual extinction event,” Musk said in 2016. “The alternative is to become a spacefaring civilisation and a multi-planet species, which I hope you would agree is the right way to go.”How will space tourism evolve over the coming years?When it comes to making space tourism more accessible to the masses, technology is key. And thanks to having both President Trump and his sidekick Elon Musk making the rules, things could start moving a lot faster. “There is a new supportive attitude for developments coming from America,” Dr Annette Toivonen, space tourism expert from Haaga-Helia University of Applied Sciences, told Euronews Travel. “That will bring with it good things and bad.”ADVERTISEMENT“The technology will rapidly evolve because legislation on space will be kept as minimal as possible,” she adds. “But at the same time there are some big questions to answer, such as is it ethical, is it environmentally friendly?”Not much about rocket launches could be considered sustainable, although companies are working hard to improve propulsion systems and develop reusable launchers. Nevertheless, Dr Toivonen believes there is an environmental benefit to sending billionaires into space.“When people go to space and see how fragile we are, and they see this very thin layer of ozone, it’s a scary experience for them,” she explained. “For some people, to see this with their own eyes and to know how we are polluting the planet, it could be a life-changing experience for them.”When the people who are having these life-changing experiences are the wealthiest and most powerful people on Earth, the consequences could be positive. “It’s a bit of a twisted angle,” Toivonen says, “but these people are the ones with the influence and the money and the power to actually change something.”ADVERTISEMENTNevertheless, she agrees that it’s a tricky time to be a space exploration company. “With the climate crisis and everything else that’s going on, they really need to justify their presence.”How realistic is manned flight to Mars?“The technology is not present at the moment,” says Dr Tovionen, “not to get there in four years anyway. Right now it seems like mission impossible.”Cost is a major factor. When the USA went to the moon in 1969, it cost the nation $25.8 billion (€24.5 billion). In today’s money, that would equate to almost $320 billion (€300bn). That was around 4 per cent of the total federal budget, and a big indicator of why we haven’t been back since.Technological and financial restrictions aside, there are some fundamental problems with travelling to space that humanity just hasn’t solved yet. Cosmic radiation remains one of the most significant challenges for human space exploration, particularly when thinking about long missions to Mars or other planets. ADVERTISEMENT“Although space tourism is very niche, it will quickly grow as an industry,” says Chris Rees, postgraduate researcher at the University of Surrey, who recently published a paper on the need for more warnings about cosmic radiation.“With increased flights, more people could be impacted by cosmic radiation,” he added. “Regulators and industry should work together to keep people safe without unnecessarily holding back innovation.”Despite the potential roadblocks, several companies are already making plans to facilitate human arrival on Mars. One such project is Mars Base Camp, Lockheed Martin’s vision for sending humans to Mars in about a decade. “The concept is simple: transport astronauts from Earth, via the Moon, to a Mars-orbiting science laboratory,” says Lockheed Martin. “There, they can perform real-time scientific exploration, analyze Martian rock and soil samples, and confirm the ideal place to land humans on the surface in the 2030s.”ADVERTISEMENTOn the way to Mars, companies think we might like to spend a night or two in outer space, and several are floating concepts for ‘space hotels’.Above: Space Development (previously called Orbital Assembly) says it could have a space hotel in operation within 60 months of funding being secured. Holding up to 440 people, the Voyager Station is planned to have living quarters, gyms, restaurants and even research pods for scientists.Jeff Bezos is getting in on the action as well with his proposed Orbital Reef. This $100 billion (€95 billion) space station is designed to orbit Earth like the International Space Station (ISS), but with a focus on tourism, luxury and research.“Humanity’s future lies in orbital habitats like Orbital Reef, where we can live and work without being tied to a single planet,” Bezos told NASA.ADVERTISEMENTHowever, not all space tourism concepts have been so fruitful. Dutch company Mars One aimed to be the first to land humans on Mars and establish a permanent colony. Announced in 2012, it drew plenty of interest from wannabe astronauts, receiving 2,700 applications for the 24 places in the settlement programme.Unfortunately, the company went bankrupt in 2019 owing investors approximately €1 million.Despite all the signals pointing to humans on Mars being rather far-fetched, at least in the near future, Dr Tovionen reminds us there is always the possibility of a surprise.“There is always the X factor,” she says. “Because of President Trump’s comments, the whole planet is now aware of the progress we are making in space, and there’s always that unknown, that maybe Musk has an ace up his sleeve that we just don’t know about yet.”ADVERTISEMENTWould there be demand for space tourism to Mars?Right now, space tourism is the preserve of Ultra-High-Net-Worth individuals (UHNWI). These are people with a net worth of at least $30 million ($28.5 million), of which there are 626,619 in the world today.But that could change as spaceflight becomes more developed and successful. Efficiency improvements, cheaper materials and technology breakthroughs are likely to bring the cost down, letting space travel companies reduce the price of their tickets.At present, Virgin Galactic sells seats on its flights for $250,000 to $500,000 per person (€238,000 to €475,000), depending on the mission. SpaceX keeps the details of ticket prices for Blue Origin under wraps, but they’re rumoured to cost around $1 billion.Until the cost comes down, demand is likely to be minimal, and space will remain accessible only to those with the deepest pockets. But there’s another problem too, and one which could even take the UHNWIs out of contention.ADVERTISEMENTResearch by the Chicago Society for Space Studies evaluated holidaymakers, who would need to stay until the planet was at a suitable location to fly back to Earth, would reside on Mars for a minimum of 112 days to a maximum of 1,328 days.Given the time it takes to fly to Mars from Earth, the total trip would last at least 2.5 years, and could be as long as five years. “The dramatic increase in total vacation duration … will most likely have an overwhelming impact on the number of people willing to undertake a vacation on Mars,” researchers concluded.UHNWIs are busy people, and spending several years not only out of the country but out of the planet would likely be somewhat awkward. Even if they could spare the time, the living conditions on the Martian surface are unlikely to offer the luxuries to which they are accustomed.
