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On Saturday afternoon, Clarke Schmidt will make his first MLB start since late May as the Yankees continue their pursuit of the American League East crown.
Schmidt will be opposed by Cubs right-hander Javier Assad, who has a solid 3.10 ERA over his last eight outings.
Here’s a breakdown of the matchup, along with my best bet.
Yankees vs. Cubs odds
TeamMoneylineRun LineTotalYankees-142-1.5 (+125)o7.5 (+100)Cubs+120+1.5 (-150)u7.5 (-122)Odds via FanDuel
Yankees vs. Cubs prediction
Prior to suffering a lat injury, Schmidt had been enjoying a fantastic early part of the season, with an ERA of 2.51 and a strong underlying profile. He had an ERA of 3.38 across three rehab starts in Double-A, including a 70-pitch outing on Monday.
If Schmidt can find top form down the stretch, it would be another meaningful boost to a Yankees rotation that saw Luis Gil throw six strong innings in an excellent return on Friday.
Schmidt’s arsenal grades out very well, as he holds a 115 Stuff+ rating this season with better-than-average ratings on three pitches.
He had been particularly dominant right before suffering the injury on May 26. In his final five big-league starts, Schmidt pitched to an ERA of 1.82 with an xFIP of 3.56. He averaged 10.56 strikeouts per nine innings during that span, with an xBA of .210.
Nestor Cortes, who has temporarily shifted to the Yankees’ bullpen, is expected to enter Saturday’s matchup after Schmidt.
Luke Weaver pitched well in the ninth inning on Friday en route to his first save of the season. It will be interesting to see if he gets another shot at the vacant closer role in Saturday’s matinee.
Assad has overachieved his xERA of 4.57 by 1.36 runs this season — nearly the exact margin by which he has overachieved his xERA throughout the entirety of his MLB career.
That makes it a little harder to argue that Assad is running with some favorable luck, but there is still a strong case that regression could be coming. He has a K-BB% of just 5.2 since the All-Star break and he has allowed a WHIP of 1.38. He has remained effective by limiting the long ball (0.89 HR/9) and stranding 83.7% of base-runners.
Since the start of last season, Assad has allowed an OPS of just .421 with runners in scoring position — the best mark of any starter to pitch more than 120 innings.
Yankees vs. Cubs pick
The Yankees should be able to field a playoff lineup versus right-handed pitching in this matchup, which means Assad is getting a far-stiffer challenge than Schmidt.
The Yankees have hit to a wRC+ of 124 against right-handed pitching this season, which ranks first by a fairly wide margin (Orioles are second at 116). Since the All-Star break, they hold a top-ranked wRC+ of 139 against RHP, with a league-leading 37.9% hard-hit rate.
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Over the same period, the Cubs have hit to a wRC+ of 109 against right-handed pitching.
Schmidt, Cortes and a strong Yankee bullpen should combine to offer the Yankees a pitching edge in this matchup. They have been fantastic on the road at 44-29 this season, and feature a far more potent lineup.
At anything better than -155, I see value backing the Yankees to win on Saturday.
Pick: Yankees moneyline (-142, FanDuel)
