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Six consecutive games between the Blue Jays and Yankees have gone over the closing total, with the AL East foes scoring an average of 12.5 runs per game during that stretch.
I’m banking on more of the same in Sunday’s battle.
Though reigning AL Cy Young winner Gerrit Cole will start for the Yankees, I’m starting to see signs of regression.
Over the past two seasons, he’s lost two ticks of velocity on his fastball, resulting in a drastic decrease in strikeout rate, a slight uptick in walk rate and a monstrous increase in home runs — Cole has allowed nine in 35 innings this season.
Ultimately, Cole’s earned run indicators (5.40 ERA, 4.67 xERA, 5.54 FIP, 4.30 xFIP) reflect his regressed profile.
He was also scratched from his most recent outing because of “body fatigue,” which doesn’t give me much confidence.
Conversely, Toronto will start Yariel Rodriguez, a solid arm but ultimately too erratic to trust (14 percent walk rate).
Behind him is the worst bullpen in baseball (-1.4 fWAR), which got worse after trading away Yimi Garcia (0.8 fWAR).
These tired-out, lame-duck arms will face two of baseball’s hottest lineups.
The Blue Jays are producing more offensively behind the resurgence of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and George Springer.
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At the same time, the Yankees have been unstoppable after pairing Jazz Chisholm Jr. with Aaron Judge and Juan Soto.
These two lineups combined for 13 runs on Friday and 11 on Saturday, and I don’t see anything changing Sunday, especially with breezes blowing out toward center field during first pitch.
THE PLAY: Over 9.5 runs (-110, FanDuel)
