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Aaron Judge stands a pretty good chance of becoming the fifth player ever to hit 50 homers in three different seasons.
Mark McGwire, Babe Ruth and Sammy Sosa did it four times each and Alex Rodriguez three. Thus, Judge is in line to join Ruth as the only players to achieve this feat who are not tied to illegal performance enhancers.
It is another sign — regardless of your baseball morality — that Judge is climbing all kinds of lists. Next year, he will be playing in a 10th season, which will make him — when the time comes — eligible for the Hall of Fame. The key part of that previous sentence is “when the time comes” because it seems reasonable that Judge is going to extend his prime longer and mount a no-brainer case for Cooperstown, in case you think he is not there yet.
In real time, Judge is climbing — and climbing — another list. And that is where he fits in the all-time Yankees hierarchy. This list also will force you to confront thoughts about steroids and your view of the importance of championships — or lack thereof.
Because it feels as if there will be a Yankees Olympus that will exclude Judge unless he can take a ride or two in the Canyon of Heroes. It is another pressure point for him and this organization to win a title — or more.
I asked my colleagues Jon Heyman and Mike Vaccaro and former colleague Ken Davidoff — all of whose perspectives and sense of history I greatly respect — for their thoughts.
Mike made a terrific point about titles: “I get the idea that championships are paramount to being a Yankee; it’s also very specific to this franchise. For instance, the Red Sox now have nine championships and both Ted Williams and Carl Yastrzemski were a part of none of them, yet I can’t fathom a similar list of Red Sox where Teddy Ballgame isn’t No. 1 and Yaz, at worst, fourth.”
There does indeed need to be distinctions made around longevity and titles and impact because it may not be Cooperstown, but the list of all-time Yankees is the most exclusive club among clubs. Jon, Ken and Mike ranked their Yankees top 20s and none included, for example, Robinson Cano, Earle Combs, Goose Gossage, Tony Lazzeri, Sparky Lyle, Roger Maris, Graig Nettles, Paul O’Neill, Phil Rizzuto or Bob Shawkey — an additional 10 who would find their way into quite a few other organizations’ historic top 20s. This is not the Marlins’ all-time list, after all.
So it is saying something that both Jon and Mike already had Judge ranked seventh. Ken had him 14th. I am closer to Ken’s point of view — that Judge’s résumé, very possibly including a second AL MVP after this year, has allowed him to go by some historic Yankees who have won titles. But I can’t get him into the top 10 quite yet.
I think the traditional Mount Rushmore has Ruth first and then a 2-3-4 in some order that is Joe DiMaggio, Lou Gehrig and Mickey Mantle. I believe the next four includes Yogi Berra, Whitey Ford, Derek Jeter and Mariano Rivera. The combination of career brilliance with postseason superlatives make them currently bulletproof from being passed by a player without a World Series appearance, no postseason signature moments and an overall playoff record that, yes, includes 13 homers in 44 games, but also a .211 average and a 33.3 percent strikeout rate.
I think yet another titanic regular season that includes Judge becoming the quickest major leaguer ever to 300 homers allows him to bypass some historic Yankees. For example, I think he went by Maris, who won two MVPs while being a key to five straight Yankee World Series appearances from 1960-64. He moved beyond Reggie Jackson, who had a 148 OPS-plus and two championships in five years with the Yankees. But it was just five years.
He jumped Dave Winfield, whose time with the Yankees is best known for a 1-for-22 World Series and his sparring with George Steinbrenner, which tend to overshadow what a brilliant player he was. I also think Judge now outdoes Don Mattingly, whose elite play is contained within a six-year frame and who was unfortunate to play at a time of failed Yankee ownership/management that limited him to one playoff series.
We get into a hazier area with recency bias as we try to fully appreciate the careers of long-ago stars such as Bill Dickey, Lefty Gomez and Red Ruffing. And also how to dock A-Rod, who won two MVPs and a championship as a Yankee, but also was as tied to PEDs as any player ever. It is hard for me to push Rodriguez too far up the list for an organization that he routinely embarrassed and, at one point, sued. It is what separates him in Yankees lore from Andy Pettitte, at least for me. Pettitte was in the Mitchell Report, and I don’t want to be naive about his career. But he was a key piece of five titles and Yankee fans hold zero bitterness or criticism toward Pettitte.
I think Dickey and Ruffing, in particular, shouldn’t be lost to time. They were Hall of Famers who combined for 14 Yankees championships. Dickey still has the credentials to be considered among the 10 best catchers ever, and Ruffing vs. Ford is a pretty good debate for the best Yankees pitcher ever. Each lost two-plus seasons while serving in the military during World War II, which for example, likely stopped Ruffing from reaching 300 wins
I would still put Pettitte ahead of Judge. And I would put Bernie Williams ahead, too. Jeter and Rivera might have been the cornerstones of the dynasty, but Williams was 1-A for me.
It is really a question about meaning as much as talent because on talent, the highs of Judge outdo, say, Williams. But Williams’ historic meaning to the Yankees is still ahead of Judge’s as the primary cleanup hitter during a dynasty.
So, I would put Judge 13th behind my top 12:1. Ruth2. DiMaggio3. Mantle4. Gehrig5. Berra6. Jeter7. Ford8. Rivera9. Ruffing10. Dickey11. Williams12. Pettitte
I can definitely see arguments for moving Judge higher and also by people screaming that Judge’s title-less résumé should keep him behind players such as Ron Guidry, Thurman Munson and Jorge Posada.
It is why I attempted this exercise. Judge offers a difficult — forgive the word play — judgment because his career is not over, and when trying to figure out where anyone ranks within this franchise, you are parsing the deepest history in the sport for length, quality and championships.
For Judge to even be considered for the top 20 at this stage of a World Series-less career speaks to just how elite he has been. It also is a debate that likely will go on for quite a while.
Awards watch
My suspicion is Cleveland’s Stephen Vogt and Milwaukee’s Pat Murphy are the front-runners to win the Manager of the Year awards. If not them, then maybe Houston’s Joe Espada and San Diego’s MIke Shildt.
You know what those four have in common — they were supposed to be following the kind of big shoes it is hard to replace. Vogt replaced Terry Francona, the 13th-winningest manager ever, the winningest manager in Cleveland’s history and pretty much a surefire Hall of Famer.
Murphy went from bench coach to manager to replace Craig Counsell, who left as the most successful manager in Brewers history and was signed away by the Cubs to a managerial-record contract of five years at $40 million. Conventional wisdom held that the Cubs snagged one of the few difference-making managers in the game.
Espada replaced Dusty Baker, the seventh-winningest manager ever and another surefire Hall of Famer. Shildt replaced Bob Melvin, who has won the 24th-most games ever.
All of the replacements have done superbly, but this a narrative honor revolving around who was in charge when a team won more than it was expected. Vogt’s Guardians and Murphy’s Brewers fit that subset.
Espada helped the Astros steer from 12 games under .500 on May 8 to the top of the AL West again. It goes beyond Melvin: The Padres traded Juan Soto in the offseason. They have played a good deal of this year without Yu Darvish, Joe Musgrove and Fernando Tatis Jr., and they were 37-40 on June 18. Yet, they finished the weekend leading the wild-card race and were a threat to the Dodgers in the NL West.
Let’s give these organizations plaudits for finding leading men who have done such good jobs as skippers.
But since all stepped in for managers of renown, is there any chance that this indicates that managers are overrated in how much impact they actually have?
Got my attention
In 2023 — Carlos Rodon’s first season with the Yankees and Luis Severino’s last — the two hurlers each had about as bad an opening and closing statement as possible. Both, familiarly, had difficulty staying healthy, and when they were on the mound, they were historically atrocious.
In 2000, David Cone had a 6.91 ERA in his final season with the Yankees. That remains the worst in organization history among those who made at least a dozen starts. Next on that list now is Rodon’s 2023, when he posted a 6.85 ERA over 14 starts, and then Severino, who pitched to a 6.65 ERA in 19 appearances, including 18 starts.
As a first impression to either an organization or free agency, it was not a great way to go. Rodon lost a tough fan base. Severino settled for a one-year, $13 million contract on the other side of the RFK Bridge.
The two have had somewhat similar rebound seasons in 2024, highlighted — in my mind — by this: They have made all their starts, to date. I would not have had that on my bingo card for pitchers so often injured in their careers. And while neither has been great this season, their dependability has had real value to their New York squads.
Severino, who managed just 197 ⅓ total innings over the previous five years, was actually eighth in the NL in innings with 142 ⅔ following his shutout on Saturday against the Marlins. Rodon, Nestor Cortes and Marcus Stroman have had real dips in their performances, but they have each taken the ball in turn all season for the Yankees at a time when their internal rotation alternatives are not great.
Through the weekend, Rodon was at 134 ⅔ innings and a 96 ERA+, compared to the exact league average 100 ERA+ for Severino.
Again, neither has been great — despite some real high highs. What they have been best of all is physically dependable, which has kept both New York organizations from having to dig deeper for a rotation option.
Last licks
There are other contenders, of course, but my early favorite for best trade acquisition is Zach Eflin, who will start the finale of a three-game series for the Orioles against the Mets at Citi Field on Wednesday.
Eflin came from the Rays on July 26 in exchange for three prospects. The veteran righty made his Orioles debut on July 29. From that point through the weekend, Baltimore went 4-0 when Eflin started and 7-9 in all its other games. Eflin has worked at least six innings in each of his starts, won them all and pitched to a 2.13 ERA. In a season in which the Orioles lost three starters to elbow surgery (Kyle Bradish, John Means, Tyler Wells), Eflin’s arrival has been vital.
One other player to keep an eye on for best acquisition by a contender is Lucas Erceg. In his first eight games with the Royals after arriving from the A’s, the righty threw 9 ⅓ shutout innings with zero walks and 14 strikeouts. He yielded four hits — all singles. In the eight games, Erceg registered six holds and two saves, so even in the two games the Royals eventually lost, Erceg protected a lead before it was blown later.
