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The precursor to a massive fight card at UFC 305, we have a light fight card for UFC Vegas 95 live from the UFC Apex in Las Vegas.
Just 10 fights on the card, headlined by a heavyweight bout between Marcin Tybura vs. Serghei Spivac.
Last week was another even-ish day from a betting perspective; we won just 5/12 bets, but a few plus-money wins on the prelim card saved the outing.
On the night, we won .61 units.
It’s not the most exciting fight card, but we are betting on two decisions in our previews with more to come in the full prelim and main card picks.
Below we break down UFC Vegas 95’s fight card from a betting perspective from the curtain jerker to the main event.
UFC Vegas 95 predictions
Marcin Tybura vs. Serghei Spivac
Tybura comes into Saturday as a decent-sized underdog against an aggressive wrestling-heavy fighter from Moldova, Spivac.
Spivac’s one and only goal is to get this fight to the mat, while Tybura can do the same, he’s the better of the two from a striking perspective.
Tybura’s takedown defense is solid at 79 percent but we have seen him get controlled, like he did against Alexandr Romanov.
Frankly, the winner of this fight is going to have the better cardio, and I trust Spivac’s cardio more.
Spivac is rightfully favored here and should be expected to win this one, but he’s also favored so no surprise there.
Durability is a major issue for both fighter’s but if things get tired after the first 7.5 minutes, we could be headed to a greasy decision.
Let’s go with that.
PICK: Fight goes the distance (+150, DraftKings)
Damon Jackson vs. Chepe Mariscal
Are we sure either of these fighters are particularly powerful?
Both of Jackson’s last two fights have gone to decision, and two of Mariscal’s last three fights have hit the scorecards.
I’ve been on fights going to decision at a higher rate since the glove change longer than most and this one just screams decision from the mountain tops.
Mariscal has never been submitted but knocked out twice, while Jackson is far from a striker.
Jackson could get KO’d (been KO’d four times), those have really only come against significant power hitters like Dan Ige and now-champion Ilia Topuria.
This one goes the distance and plus-money is utter nonsense.
PICK: Fight goes the distance (+108, FanDuel)
UFC Vegas 95 prelim and main card picks
Marcin Tybura vs. Serghei Spivac: Fight goes the distance (+150, DraftKings)
Damon Jackson vs. Chepe Mariscal: Fight goes the distance (+108, FanDuel)
Danny Barlow vs. Nikolay Veretennikov: Barlow ML for parlays
Chris Gutierrez vs. Quang Le: Gutierrez by KO/TKO (+205, BetRivers)
Yana Santos vs. Chelsea Chandler: Fight goes the distance -295 with Barlow ML
Toshiomi Kazama vs. Charalampos Grigoriou: Pass
Karol Rosa vs. Pannie Kianzad: Rosa by decision (-135, BetMGM) add goes to decision with Barlow/Chandler-Santos parlay if feeling spicy.
Jhonata Diniz vs. Karl Williams: Williams by in round 3 or decision (+100, ESPN BET)
Youssef Zalal vs. Jarno Errens: Fight goes the distance (-167, BetRivers)
Stephanie Luciano vs. Talita Alencar: Pass
