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Saturday’s UFC Fight Night is more like a “fight morning” as we head to Saudi Arabia for a slate of fights.
Israel Adesanya fights on a non-pay-per-view card for the first time since 2018, as he’s headlined major cards for most of his career.
He’s fallen on some hard times, though, losing three of his last four fights, including an embarrassing decision loss to Sean Strickland and by submission to Dricus du Plessis.
The main question we’ll be asking as we head into the main event this weekend is if Adesanya’s best days are behind him.
It’s an extremely early start time Saturday, with fights beginning at 9 a.m. ET, and the main card will go off at 12 p.m. ET.
UFC Fight Night Riyadh
Israel Adesanya vs. Nassourdine Imavov
Is Adesanya done so soon?
The “Last Style Bender” has an easy hall-of-fame career, and his knockouts of Alex Pereira and Robert Whittaker are legendary.
But he’s lost two straight fights to fighters that he would have mashed earlier in his career.
It’s a big spot for Adesanya to get his career back in order and, frankly, it seems that his issues have been more mental than physical.
There’s no denying, though, that his takedown defense has let him down over and over again of late.
Imavov doesn’t grapple much, but he can take down strong strikers. Look to his fight against Chris Curtis as an example for why he can win this fight on the mat.
Imavov also does not have a submission win in his UFC career.
However, he has attempted 10 in his UFC career and we just watched Adesanya seemingly quit against Du Plessis and submit to a neck crank.
Imavov isn’t a world beater, but the value side is certainly on Imavov’s grappler more than Adesanya, who appears to be on a downward trajectory.
PICK: Imavov by submission in Rounds 3, 4, or 5 (+2200, FanDuel)
Shara Magomedov vs. Michael Page
Two elite strikers face off as Shara “Bullet” Magomedov matches up against Michael “Venom” Page.
Notably, Page is jumping up to 185 lbs. to take this fight despite being a normal welterweight fighter at 170 lbs.
Neither of these fighters is looking for takedowns. These two are going to clash in a chess match in the center of the octagon.
Magomedov is the younger, more powerful of the two, while Page is a frustrating counter striker to face.
I expect Page to be difficult to hit in the early going and perhaps even steal Round 1, but Magomedov should be able to takeover here as we get to the later stages.
Be on the lookout for wagers on Magomedov after Round 1 at plus-money, but, for now, target Magomedov’s moneyline.
PICK: Magomedov ML (-185, BetMGM)
Sergei Pavlovich vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik
In the heavyweight division, Sergei Pavlovich faces decorated kickboxer Jairzinho Rozenstruik.
Rozenstruik is more of a counter striker despite having plenty of power in his hands, while Pavlovich is a powerful monster at heavyweight.
His most common path to victory is to blitz his opponent and run at them with power strikes.
Pavlovich is coming off two straight losses, with a surprising one coming against Alexander Volkov as a big -225 favorite.
He could blast Rozenstruik early in the fight by knocking him out inside 2:30, as Francis Ngannou did in 2020.
But Pavlovich isn’t that same level of striker or power.
Bet on Rozenstruik pre-fight and look to add more after the first 2:30.
PICK: Rozenstruik (+250, BetMGM); Wait to live bet more after 2:30 in the first round
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UFC Full fight night Abu Dhabi picks
Israel Adesanya vs. Nassourdine Imavov: Imavov by submission in rounds 3, 4 or 5 (+2200, FanDuel)
Shara Magomedov vs. Michael Page: Magomdeov ML (-185, BetMGM) for parlays
Sergei Pavlovich vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik: Wait to live bet Rozenstruik after 2:30 in the first round (+250, BetMGM)
Said Nurmagomedov vs. Vinicius Oliveira: Oliveira ML (+400, ESPN BET)
Fares Ziam vs. Mike Davis: Ziam by decision (+222, Bet365)
Muhammad Naimov vs. Kaan Ofli: Pass
Shamil Gaziev vs. Thomas Petersen: Fight goes to decision (+145) | Peterson wins by decision (+600, Fanatics Sportsbook)
Terrance McKinney vs. Damir Hadzovic: Small bet on McKinney by decision (+1000, DraftKings)
Jasmine Jasudavicius vs. Mayra Bueno Silva: Jasudavicius by decision (-140, FanDuel)
Bogdan Grad vs. Lucas Alexander: Grad ML (+105, Caesars)
Hamdy Abdelwahab (-112) vs. Jamal Pogues: Abdelwahab ML (-112, BetRivers)
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