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The UFC has been traveling across the world, starting in Manchester, England, and Saturday’s card will be held on Yas Island in Abu Dhabi.
It’s national television and primetime treatment for the UFC as the card begins on ABC at 12 p.m. ET.
Last week was best labeled as “meh,” hitting Paddy Pimblett to win by submission at +510 odds and cashing another plus-money bet that kept us within profitability range.
However, we won just four of 13 bets; nine losses are not what we’re looking for.
In total, we lost 1.76 units, and Pimblett saved a genuinely dreadful night at the office, making grateful for him.
In the last six cards, we’ve won 23.78 units, although we’ve lost money on two straight cards so we’re in need of a big night this weekend.
UFC Abu Dhabi predictions
Cory Sandhagen vs. Umar Nurmagomedov
The line for this fight is flat-out ridiculous despite the incredible ceiling and prospect status that Umar Nurmagomedov possesses.
No one will doubt his lineage, as he is the cousin of arguable MMA GOAT Khabib Nurmagomedov and brother of PFL champion Usman Nurmagomedov, but he has not yet faced someone as strong as Cory Sandhagan in this division.
Sandhagan has all of the tools at his disposal to be the champion right now.
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Having said that, the value of the fight is for it to go to a decision at -125 on Caesars.
Sandhagan is incredibly tough and has only been finished once in his UFC career, a submission loss to Aljamain Sterling, which he says is one of the most embarrassing moments of his life.
It’s a step up in Nurmagomedov’s competition, and it is hard to see a win inside the distance despite having an elite grappling lineage.
PICK: Fight goes the distance (-125, Caesars) | Sandhagan by decision (+750, DraftKings) – Small bet
Shara Magomedov vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk
Much has been made about Michal Oleksiejczuk saying he “will probably lose” this bout against Shara Magomedov, but perhaps it was a tongue-in-cheek comment to a trolling fan.
Oleksiejczuk says his arm did not break despite the grisely looking nature, so we’re looking at two healthy fighters.
Oleksiejczuk has next to no fight IQ. He should grapple here, but he probably won’t.
Magomedov can’t defend takedowns much at all and is a gnarly striker.
Expect this one to be over in a hurry.
If you’re looking for a long shot, grab Oleksiejczuk to win by first-round KO at +1150.
This will just be a slugfest that could look more 70/30 (percent) than 90/10 (percent).
PICK: Under 1.5 rounds (+105, FanDuel) | Oleksiejczuk wins by KO in round 1 (+1150, BetRivers)
UFC Abu Dhabi prelim and main card picks
Cory Sandhagen (+270) vs. Umar Nurmagomedov: Sandhagan by decision (+750, DraftKings)
Shara Magomedov (-238) vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk: Under 1.5 rounds (+105, FanDuel) | Oleksiejczuk wins by KO in round 1 (+1150, BetRivers)
Marlon Vera (+120) vs. Deiveson Figueiredo: Marlon Vera by decision (+330, DraftKings):
Tony Ferguson (+440) vs. Michael Chiesa: Tony Ferguson by submission 12/1 (BetRivers)
Mackenzie Dern (-115) vs. Loopy Godinez: Dern ML (-115, Caesars)
Joel Alvarez (-166) vs. Elves Brener: Pass
Azamat Murzakanov (-218) vs. Alonzo Menifield: Over 1.5 rounds (-157, BetMGM)
Mohammad Yahya (+310) vs. Kaue Fernandes: Pass
Shamil Gaziev (-270) vs. Don’Tale Mayes: SGP: Mayes 1+ Takedown, Mayes wins in over 4.5 minutes (+525, DraftKings)
Guram Kutateladze (-218) vs. Jordan Vucenic Vucenic ML (+190, ESPN BET)
Viktoriia Dudakova (-170) vs. Sam Hughes: Hughes by decision (+220, BetRivers)
Jai Herbert (-130) vs. Rolando Bedoya: Bedoya ML (+110, FanDuel)
Sedriques Dumas (-230) vs. Denis Tiuliulin: Fight goes the distance (+165, BetRivers)
