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A national audience will get an introduction to two of the NFL’s brightest young quarterbacks Sunday night as the Texans host the Bears.
Caleb Williams will make his prime-time debut, and C.J. Stroud will have his first home game under the lights.
When the Bears have the ball
Though the Bears won their season opener last week, it was a rough debut for Williams — who completed just 14-of-29 passes for 93 yards, finishing with a league-low 3.2 yards per attempt and ranking last in EPA+CPOE of all starting quarterbacks.
Better days should be ahead for the No. 1-overall pick, though it might have to wait another week with top receiving targets Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze questionable for this game.
My hunch is that Odunze’s MCL sprain will keep him out, while Allen’s heel won’t hinder his availability.
Williams had numerous missed opportunities to connect with Allen, who was the quarterback’s first read a team-high 35 percent of the time, per Fantasy Points Data.
The Bears offensive line was surprisingly subpar in Week 1 after ranking top-five in pass- and run-block win rate last year, per ESPN.
Guard Teven Jenkins and center Coleman Shelton particularly struggled on the interior.
They’ll have to step up against a Texans defensive line that ranked in the top eight in adjusted line yards and adjusted sack rate last week.
When the Texans have the ball
Stroud had a solid outing in Week 1, finishing with 234 passing yards and two touchdowns.
He ranked sixth in EPA+CPOE and seventh with an 80.6 percent adjusted completion rate.
Stroud is a menace against most defensive coverages, especially Cover 3, which the Bears ran at the sixth-highest rate last year (38.3 percent).
Against Cover 3 last year, the quarterback ranked third in total EPA with 8.72 YPA and eight touchdowns to no interceptions.
Nico Collins ranked third in the NFL with 3.67 yards per route run against Cover 3.
Collins will likely face Jaylon Johnson, who ranked second in the NFL in Pro Football Focus coverage grade in 2023, allowing a league-low 33.3 passer rating.
The Bears must attempt to force Stroud into third-and-long situations where they can ramp up the pressure.
Chicago ranked first in the NFL in pass-rush win rate in Week 1, and though I believe that was more a reflection of their opponent’s poor pass-blocking, it’s still noteworthy.
To help avoid those third-and-long situations, expect the Texans to use Joe Mixon on early downs, after he registered 30 carries for 159 yards and a touchdown last week.
Chicago was 21st in defensive adjusted line yards after ranking third in that metric in 2023. They’ll need a bounce-back performance in run defense.
Betting on the NFL?
The verdict
The look-ahead line for this game was -3.5 for the Texans, and the market has probably overreacted with the current line of -6.5.
Williams struggled in Week 1, but he should get more comfortable moving forward.
Houston’s defense showed some holes last week, ranking 28th in PFF’s coverage grades, and Chicago’s offense should have a more productive passing game.
My numbers make this spread Texans -5.2, so there’s value on the Bears as road underdogs.
But I’m waiting on the injury report to see what the statuses of Allen and Odunze will be, and so should you.
Williams will need all the help he can get to keep pace with Stroud in this game.
Recommendation: Bears +6.5 (wait on injury news for Allen and Odunze)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Jacob Wayne handicaps college football and the NFL for the New York Post. He’s up 84.5 units across the two sports with a 6.27% ROI.
