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The NBA has traveled to Paris this week for two regular-season games, showcasing rising star and France native Victor Wembanyama.
In the opener, Wemby and the San Antonio Spurs defeated the Indiana Pacers on Thursday, 140-110, in front of a spirited crowd. The 21-year-old did not disappoint, finishing with 30 points, 11 rebounds and six assists. He also made four 3-pointers.
Bettors understandably backed Wemby’s proposition bets, and he rewarded them by cashing the Overs on most. Nevertheless, while I expect him to post big numbers in Saturday’s rematch, I see betting value in his opposing center’s props.
On Thursday, Pacers big man Myles Turner attempted eight 3-pointers and made two of them, which enabled him to cash the Over 1.5 prop. I think there is excellent value on the same wager.
Wembanyama is a -600 favorite at DraftKings to win the Defensive Player of the Year award. The 7-foot-3 unicorn is an absolute force, leading the NBA with 4.0 blocks per game.
The Spurs structure their defense so he mans the paint and can help on drives to the basket. They do not waste his worth by asking him to guard centers tightly on the perimeter. He does close out when his man receives the ball, but it’s a casual closeout. That’s why Turner had time and space to attempt eight shots from behind the arc.
Betting on the NBA?
This is the common trend in matchups that present a center who can shoot 3-pointers. In recent games, Brook Lopez (11), Nikola Vucevic (9), Anthony Davis (5) and Nikola Jokic (8 and 10) all posted 3-point attempts higher than their season averages.
Thus, given Turner normally averages over five attempts per game, he will likely have even more opportunities again to cash over 1.5 made threes. Volume is all you can ask for.
