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Premier League fans tend to think that a player who can score 20 or more goals is a prerequisite to winning the title.
Thus, if you’re trying to pick the league’s top scorer, perhaps it makes sense just to pick a player on the country’s best team.
However, that strategy hasn’t always been successful, considering there have been 11 instances in 32 seasons (34 percent) when the league’s top scorer also went on to lift the cup.
Manchester City’s Erling Haaland could be the exception, given his back-to-back Golden Boots with Premier League titles.
With the Cityzens once again favorites to win the league with odds as low as -105, Haaland’s an even bigger favorite (-150) to finish as the top scorer.
Though it’s clear we can’t deny Haaland’s quality, it isn’t worthwhile to back him at such a heavy price.
Instead, bettors can find better value by targeting one player who could see his stock rise following a breakout campaign.
Since Pep Guardiola took over as manager in 2016, Manchester City has won four straight Premier League titles, including six of the past eight.
However, there is some hope that the Spaniard’s dominance in English football has started to wane.
After all, Man City won two of their past three titles by two or fewer points.
Clubs are starting to show more ambition in England’s top flight through their recruitment, spending and managerial changes.
One team that comes to mind is Aston Villa, which qualified for the Champions League in its first full season under manager Unai Emery.
Emery has a potential 20-goal scorer with Ollie Watkins at the forward position.
Watkins scored at least 10 goals in each of his four EPL seasons and bagged 19 in the 2023-24 campaign.
His efforts led to a call-up to England’s national team, and his goal in the 90th minute against the Netherlands sent the Three Lions to the finals of the European Championship.
In a summer when most teams have been somewhat slow to open the checkbook due to fears of falling out of compliance with the league’s financial rules, Aston Villa has been very aggressive in the market.
The Villans set a new club transfer record by signing Amadou Onana from Everton for $64.6 million.
They also brought in left fullback Ian Maatsen from Chelsea for $48.9 million while adding left-winger Samuel Iling-Junior from Juventus for $15.5 million.
Lewis Dobbin, who joins Onana from Everton for $11.6 million, will be another threat on the left side of the pitch.
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Argentina’s Enzo Barrenechea is another defensive-minded player who can play on the back line and in midfield. He joins Villa from Juventus for $9 million.
But perhaps the most underrated signing might be Ross Barkley from Luton Town for $6.4 million.
Barkley played well enough for Luton Town to warrant a place on the England roster for the European Championship.
There are also other pieces in the attack, with Cameron Archer coming in from Sheffield United ($18 million) and Jaden Philogene ($16.7 million) from Hull City.
Archer can play on the forward line, while Philogene mainly operates as a winger.
While being the league’s top scorer is an individual accomplishment, no player can achieve such a feat alone.
With a better team around him, Watkins can be the beneficiary of more scoring chances and opportunities and is a strong bet at 17/1 (FanDuel) to finish as the EPL’s top goalscorer.
