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Welcome to the NFL’s wild-card weekend, the football fans and bettors’ reward for having had to endure 18 weeks of mediocre, bad and terrible teams.
It’ll be wall-to-wall playoff games from 4:30 Saturday afternoon until about 11:30 Monday night.
And there won’t be a Giant or Jet in sight — unless you’re counting Saquon Barkley of the Eagles or Sam Darnold of the Vikings or Todd Bowles of the Bucs.
Let’s dig right in.
SATURDAY
Los Angeles Chargers (-3) over HOUSTON TEXANS Under 42.5: There’s playoff experience, then there’s Justin Herbert’s playoff experience. The Chargers’ quarterback has played in one postseason game and it started out great, with a 27-0 lead against the Jaguars in 2022. But that was in an era when the Bolts were blowing games in all kinds of ways, and they ended up losing, 31-30.
C.J. Stroud’s playoff debut last season was much better. He threw three touchdown passes in the first half, then watched Joe Flacco throw two pick-sixes in what became a 45-14 blowout for the Texans (then 9-7) against the Browns (who came in at 11-5).
This should be a competitive game, with the difference being first-year Chargers coach Jim Harbaugh. He has taken the 49ers to the Super Bowl, won the national championship at Michigan and now succeeded at getting the Chargers to stop shooting themselves in the foot. Their nine giveaways (three interceptions and six lost fumbles) were the second-fewest in the NFL this season.
Stroud will be without his No. 2 receiving threat, Tank Dell, and the offense has been off-kilter all season.
The Chargers have injury questions about both running backs, with J.K. Dobbins listed as questionable and Gus Edwards missing the last two games.
But Herbert and Harbaugh have been figuring it out all season, going 7-2 against the spread (ATS) on the road as part of a 12-5 ATS mark.
Chargers, 23-17
Pittsburgh Steelers (+10) over BALTIMORE RAVENS; Under 43.5: Next Harbaugh up is John, and if you want to back him, you have to lay double digits against the Ravens’ death rivals, the Steelers.
Those into recency bias can fixate on Baltimore’s 34-17 hammering of Pittsburgh on Dec. 21. But if you consider the 10 meetings before that, the biggest margin of victory by either team was seven points and the average margin was 3.7 points.
Betting on the NFL?
In the Dec. 21 matchup, Zay Flowers had 100 yards receiving for the Ravens, but he will miss this game with a knee injury he suffered last week.
The coaches, Harbaugh and Mike Tomlin, know each other so well, and the players hate each other so much, and Russell Wilson should make enough plays to keep this close throughout.
Going to take the Under because in the 10 Ravens-Steelers matchups this decade, the average total score was 35.1 points.
Ravens, 24-16
LOCK OF THE WEEK: Steelers (Locks 9-9 in 2024). LAST WEEK: 9-7 overall, 1-2 Best Bets.
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Dave Blezow’s one of the longest tenured NFL handicappers at the Post with picks dating back 31 years. He won the Post’s NFL betting standings in 2021 and the Playoffs most recently in 2023.
