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Week 18 in the NFL is the one where you take everything you’ve learned to this point and put it in a blender.
There are all kinds of different angles and motivations taking place: teams locked into playoff berths resting star players or multiple starters … teams that need to win to make the playoffs and others who are trying to climb the seeding ladder to avoid a dangerous wild-card matchup … teams that are tanking for the draft.
Many of the games include at least one of these factors and we’ll point them out as we go along. But here are a few general things to keep in mind:
— Not all “tanking” teams lose. In the past two weeks, the Raiders and Giants have given up the No. 1-overall pick with victories.
— Not all “resting” teams lose. According to research by Steve Makinen of VSiN, over the past 13 years, locked-in playoff teams sitting key starters in the final week are 13-23 outright but 20-14-2 against the spread. Consider that before laying double digits to the 15-1 Chiefs.
Here we go, and good luck for a profitable last stand for the 2024 regular season.
Saturday
Browns (+19) over RAVENS
Ravens clinch the AFC North and No. 3 seed with a win, but would also get it with a Steelers loss later in the day. Not sure how hard John Harbaugh will push for a blowout. Once the lead gets to two touchdowns — or if Lamar Jackson takes a hit — will he prefer to speed up the ending? The Browns don’t figure to offer much resistance, particularly if Myles Garrett is out, but a final score such as 31-13 doesn’t cover this number.
Bengals (-1.5) over STEELERS
This is one of my favorite Week 18 scenarios — a team playing for survival vs. one that’s already in the playoffs and is trying to improve seeding. Bengals need a win then have the Broncos and Dolphins lose Sunday. That’s a lot to ask, but we might be witnessing the start of a miracle run by a Bengals team that was 4-8 after a 44-38 home loss to the Steelers.
Sunday
Giants (+3) over EAGLES
This is the first test of Makinen’s stat above. The Eagles are resting Saquon Barkley with 2,005 yards instead of letting him take aim at Eric Dickerson’s record of 2,105 in 1984. With Jalen Hurts also out, this looks like a case where coach Nick Sirianni declared the regular season over after last week’s 41-7 win over the Cowboys that clinched the NFC No. 2 seed.
The Giants were desperate to break their 100-season-record 10-game losing streak last week and now will be looking to carry a winning streak into the offseason, no matter the draft-position ramifications.
JETS (+1) over Dolphins
Miami needs a win and a Broncos loss to the Chiefs to make the postseason. If the scoreboard shows bad news from Denver, the Dolphins could have a letdown in the low-30s, after-dark temps in windy MetLife. As it is, they are looking at Tyler Huntley in place of the injured Tua Tagovailoa.
Hoping that, like the Giants last week, the Jets have a “pride game” in them at home after their embarrassing 40-14 loss at Buffalo.
FALCONS (-8.5) over Panthers
Atlanta needs a win and a Tampa Bay loss to win the NFC South, and it likely will become apparent early that the latter won’t happen. Still, I’d expect the Falcons to keep playing because their offensive stars should be enjoying success against Carolina’s NFL-worst scoring defense.
Commanders (-6) over COWBOYS
A Washington win would guarantee the sixth seed and a better matchup than the 7-vs.-2 in Philadelphia. The Commanders have had so little recent success, I believe Dan Quinn will keep the pedal to metal against a CeeDee Lamb-less Cowboys team.
Bears (+10) over PACKERS
Green Bay needs Washington to lose. If that scenario starts to go by the wayside, I doubt Matt LaFleur will let Jordan Love take too many unnecessary hits from angry Bears. Also, Chicago is in the spot the Giants were in last week — professional football players trying to end a 10-game losing streak.
Jaguars (+5) over COLTS
A meaningless matchup for the playoffs. The Jags have some draft considerations, currently sitting at No. 5, but they don’t seem too concerned about that. Give me the points against a team that gave up 45 points to the Giants.
Bills (-2.5) over PATRIOTS
Patriots currently own the No. 1 pick in the draft, and I believe they will hold on to it after the Raiders and Giants let it slip. The Bills are locked into the No. 2 seed, but I’m happy to ride with any iteration of Buffalo’s 53-man roster at this price.
BUCCANEERS (-13.5) over Saints
The Bucs would clinch the NFC South with a win, and I’ll lay whatever price is necessary on Baker Mayfield & Co. to do it. In their 5-1 surge, four of the wins have been by 15 points or more.
Texans (+1.5) over TITANS
This one’s both a psychological and practical play. The Texans are locked in as the No. 4 seed in the AFC, but after last week’s 31-2 loss to Baltimore, coach DeMeco Ryans has to do something to raise the mood heading into the playoffs. So I expect a strong effort here against a Titans team that’s 2-14 ATS, even if it’s Davis Mills in place of C.J. Stroud.
Chiefs (+10.5) over BRONCOS
On what planet would the 15-1 Chiefs be double-digit underdogs in a game? On Planet Week 18. Denver gets a wild card with a win or tie, but even with Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Isiah Pacheco and Chris Jones sitting, there will be plenty of brand-name Chiefs on the field playing with quality backup QB Carson Wentz.
CARDINALS (-4) over 49ers
Two teams that are out of contention. I have a soft spot for QB Josh Dobbs and would back him if not for a prohibitive 49ers injury report. The Cards have one last shot to show out for the home fans, and the visitors might not have anything left at this point.
Chargers (-4.5) over RAIDERS
The Chargers are the sixth seed in the AFC but can move to five with a win if the Steelers lose Saturday. I need to pick this game now, so since I’m backing Cincinnati, I have to presume it will be all systems go for Jim Harbaugh here. If the Steelers win, you’ll have a much different point spread Sunday morning.
RAMS (+6.5) over Seahawks
This is a tricky one. The Rams are the NFC third seed but could drop to fourth with a loss. It may not be enough to risk Matthew Stafford’s health but it does have some value. This spread is priced as if the Rams will punt on the game, but I’m not there — and I’d be comfortable backing Jimmy Garoppolo if Sean McVay starts him.
Betting on the NFL?
LIONS (-3) over Vikings
Game 272 might be the best of them all. The scary part if you want to back the Lions is that though both offenses are excellent, the Vikings also have a good defense and the Lions don’t. But this has been the year of the Lions, and I’m figuring Dan Campbell and offensive coordinator Ben Johnson will figure out how to come away with the NFC North title and NFC No. 1 seed.
Best bets: Chiefs, Buccaneers, Rams Lock of the week: Chiefs (Locks 9-8 in 2024) Last week: 9-7 overall, 2-1 Best Bets
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Dave Blezow’s one of the longest tenured NFL handicappers at the Post with picks dating back 31 years. He won the Post’s NFL betting standings in 2021 and the Playoffs most recently in 2023.
