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Here we go with Season 31 in The Post’s NFL Bettor’s Guide. When I started this column in 1994, Dan Reeves and Pete Carroll were the coaches in New York, the league consisted of just 28 teams and kickoffs didn’t resemble two long lines at the bank (that was a thing back then … IYKYK).
The first game on the list is the Vikings at the Giants on Sunday at MetLife Stadium. Thanks to “Hard Knocks,” we know the team GM Joe Schoen and coach Brian Daboll are putting on the field is not quite the one they’d envisioned. They settled on an injury-rehabbed Daniel Jones after trying unsuccessfully to move up in the draft to select one of the top quarterbacks.
We also saw Daboll wanted to keep Tyrod Taylor as the backup over a list of options presented to him by Schoen that included eventual answer Drew Lock. Taylor signed with the Jets.
But on the flip side, the Giants accomplished a lot of what they wanted to do in the offseason. They had no interest in paying Saquon Barkley and instead brought in the serviceable Devin Singletary, who was productive in the Daboll scheme in Buffalo. In Malik Nabers, they have their most dangerous wideout since Odell Beckham Jr. And though there remain questions about the offensive line and the back end of the defense, the thought process of adding Brian Burns to Dexter Lawrence and Kayvon Thibodeaux up front was solid.
Sunday’s opponent, the Vikings, traded up with the Jets to secure J.J. McCarthy, but the former Michigan quarterback already is out for the season. That leaves Sam Darnold, already on his fourth team, under center.
The Giants have had a good recent history against a better version of the Vikings, with a near-miss late in the 2022 season followed by an upset road win in the playoffs. This likely will end up being a losing season, but Big Blue is worth a play as small home underdogs in the opener.
The pick: Giants +1.5 (-110, Fanatics)
MIAMI DOLPHINS (-3.5) over Jacksonville Jaguars: Not a knock on Trevor Lawrence or the Jaguars, just that their defense won’t be able to keep up with the speed of Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle and De’Von Achane over three hours in the 89-degree Miami heat.
Pittsburgh Steelers (+3) over ATLANTA FALCONS: The Steelers’ defense projects to be tough, and T.J. Watt will be putting pressure on new Falcons starting QB Kirk Cousins, who’s coming back from injury and is in a new system. Mike Tomlin is a career 64.3% bet to cover as an underdog, and Atlanta chose Raheem Morris over Bill Belichick.
Carolina Panthers (+4) over NEW ORLEANS SAINTS: NFC South matchup in which the points could be decisive for the ’dog. Bryce Young is no longer a rookie, and new coach Dave Canales shows promise, while we know the Saints’ Dennis Allen (7-15-1 ATS as a favorite) is near the bottom of the heap.
CINCINNATI BENGALS (-8.5) over New England Patriots: This is a matchup that probably would have a 14-point spread if it were held in Week 4 and things had gone as forecast. So this number seems cheap to bet against a team that is likely headed for the first pick in the 2025 draft.
Tennessee Titans (+3.5) over CHICAGO BEARS: Tough spot for rookie Titans coach Brian Callahan in his debut, but he has a chance to diversify the offense with Tony Pollard replacing Derrick Henry and QB Will Levis taking a sophomore jump. All of the hype for Caleb Williams, Rome Odunze and this Bears team could end up hurting them a bit out of the gate.
Arizona Cardinals (+6.5) over BUFFALO BILLS: Though the Cardinals won just four games in Jonathan Gannon’s first season as coach, they were 9-8 against the spread with outright wins against the Cowboys, Steelers and Eagles. Now they have Marvin Harrison Jr. to augment a healthy Kyler Murray. Josh Allen may need a little time to reboot after Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis departed.
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (+3) over Houston Texans: According to Steve Makinen of VSiN, divisional home underdogs are 18-9-2 straight up and 23-6 ATS in Week 1 since 2009. This is the only game on the board that fits the bill. The teams split two games last year, but the Texans had to face Anthony Richardson for only one full quarter.
Las Vegas Raiders (+3) over LOS ANGELES CHARGERS: Another divisional underdog, this time on the road, and another chance to fade Week 1 hype surrounding Jim Harbaugh. The new coach will find a pro-Raiders crowd inside SoFi Stadium, and Justin Herbert will be looking for new weapons to replace Keenan Allen, Mike Williams and Austin Ekeler.
Denver Broncos (+6) over SEATTLE SEAHAWKS: Opener of the Mike Macdonald era in Seattle after 14 seasons and 246 regular-season and playoff wins for Pete Carroll. Though Macdonald inherits a solid team and it’s hard to pick a debuting rookie quarterback in that stadium, I believe Bo Nix is the perfect fit for Sean Payton’s offense, and he’ll keep this close.
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (-3.5) over Washington Commanders: As much as I’d like to saddle up with Jayden Daniels, and Washington’s roster is a bit better than it has been, the Bucs are still a team that beat the Eagles and gave it a good go vs. the Lions in the playoffs, with Baker Mayfield throwing for 686 yards combined.
CLEVELAND BROWNS (-2.5) over Dallas Cowboys: CeeDee Lamb, Dallas’ biggest offensive threat, is trying to cram a whole training camp into one week. Ezekiel Elliott returns as the RB1 after a decrepit season in New England, and he’s a step back from Pollard. With Tyron Smith now a Jet, Dak Prescott will have to watch out for Myles Garrett.
DETROIT LIONS (-3.5) over Los Angeles Rams: The Lions beat the Rams, 24-23, in the playoffs, so I’m a bit uncomfortable with this number. Still, I remember how Dan Campbell prepared the Lions for Week 1’s upset win at Kansas City last season. And the Rams have some problems at offensive tackle with Alaric Jackson suspended and Rob Havenstein on a bad ankle.
Betting on the NFL?
Monday Night Football
New York Jets (+4) over SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS: The 49ers rushed offensive tackle Trent Williams and WR Brandon Aiyuk into the fold a few days ago, and Christian McCaffrey could be limited at least in some way by his calf injury. No one knows what this Aaron Rodgers offense is going to look like, so this is a huge risk. But here goes …
Best Bets: Dolphins, Panthers, Cardinals. Lock of the Week: Dolphins Thursday: Chiefs (W)Friday: Packers (L)
@DaveBlezowNYP
Editor’s note: After making selections in our NFL Bettor’s Guide for the past 27 seasons, The Wildcat has retired. The Post thanks the renowned handicapper for the expertise he brought to this section over many years.
