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Besides the AFC North, the NFC North had as much parity last season as any other division, with all four teams logging at least seven wins.
While the Vikings have taken a step back after losing Kirk Cousins, the rest of the teams in the NFC North are poised to improve in 2024.
Let’s analyze each team and their respective win total odds from BetMGM.
Bears: 8.5 wins (-165/+140)
The Bears’ trade of the No. 1 pick last year with the Panthers set them up nicely for the future.
It netted a haul that included quarterback Caleb Williams, OL Darnell Wright, receiver DJ Moore, punter Tory Taylor and a few future picks.
Chicago began last season 0-4 but played the next 13 games above .500, finishing 7-10.
Matt Eberflus has already rerouted the direction of the Bears organization after just two years and now has an uber-talented rookie tandem of Williams and WR Rome Odunze.
Don’t be shocked if the Bears finish above .500, especially since they have one of the NFL’s easiest projected schedules.
Lions: 10.5 wins (-135/+110)
The Lions finished last season 12-5, making it to the NFC Championship before blowing a 24-7 halftime lead to the 49ers.
Detroit relied heavily on outscoring its opponents, ranking second in overall offense, per PFF, but 19th in overall defense.
The Lions re-signed most of their top talent, including QB Jared Goff, WR Amon-Ra St. Brown and OL Penei Sewell.
The Lions also snagged Marcus Davenport, Kevin Zeitler, Carlton Davis and DJ Reader in free agency and drafted CB Terrion Arnold to help fill the gap left by C.J. Gardner-Johnson’s departure.
It is Super Bowl or bust for the Lions.
Packers: 9.5 wins (-140/+115)
After sitting behind Aaron Rodgers through his first two seasons, Jordan Love finally got an opportunity to start for the Packers, and he did not disappoint, throwing for 4,159 yards and 32 touchdowns.
The Packers got hot at the perfect time last year, stringing together three consecutive wins to squeak into the playoffs and then rattling off an upset victory against second-seeded Dallas before falling to San Francisco.
The Packers replaced Aaron Jones with Josh Jacobs and Darnell Savage with Xavier McKinney.
Additionally, the momentum they found at the end of the 2023 season should give them confidence that they can be one of the best in the conference and the entire league.
Vikings: 7.5 wins (+150/-190)
Growing pains are to be expected when you let your starting quarterback walk in free agency.
Cousins finished as the ninth-highest rated quarterback by PFF but was fifth in that ranking before going down with an injury in Week 8.
Cousins will be replaced with a combination of journeyman Sam Darnold and rookie J.J. McCarthy, which will be an immediate downgrade.
Additionally, while Khyree Jackson and Dallas Turner were two terrific picks in this year’s draft, relying on two rookies to fix a significant defensive problem is not ideal.
The Vikings needed to do more to address their secondary, which ranked last in opponent completion percentage last year.
Minnesota let opposing quarterbacks complete more than 70 percent of their attempts, nearly 2 percent more than the next-closest team.
Betting on the NFL?
NFC North best bet
Every team in the NFC North improved substantially except for the Vikings, who prioritized long-term growth over trying to be competitive right now.
They can expect to take a sizable step back in 2024, especially with the fifth-hardest projected schedule, per Sharp Football.
Expecting a team to win more games than last season (7-10) despite being objectively worse while also existing in a division where every other team has gotten better does not make much sense.
Fade Minnesota’s win total in 2024.
PICK: Under 7.5 wins (-170, FanDuel)
