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The 2024 NASCAR Cup Series regular season is winding down, with just four races before the playoffs.
It’s a competitive battle for the regular season, with Kyle Larson holding a 10-point lead on Chase Elliott and a 15-point edge over Tyler Reddick.
Perhaps the more intriguing battle is for the final playoff spot.
Bubba Wallace trails Chris Buescher by 17 points and Ross Chastain by seven.
Of course, a new winner can move the cutline.
DraftKings has Larson, Denny Hamlin and Christopher Bell (+450) as the favorites.
William Byron (+600) and defending champion Ryan Blaney (+800) make up the drivers with multiple wins.
With NASCAR on a two-week break for the Olympics, let’s examine the futures market and offer four best bets.
Bubba Wallace to make playoffs (+180, bet365)
Three weeks ago, Joey Logano scored a clutch victory at Nashville to move himself off the playoff cutline.
That was a detriment to Wallace, who was 51 points out of the playoffs at the time.
It looked like his only path was a victory, but a recent stretch of strong finishes has him in position to make it on points.
Including Nashville, Wallace has four straight finishes of 13th or better.
His biggest competition, Chastain, has four consecutive finishes of 15th or worse.
Wallace has strong tracks coming up with Michigan and Daytona.
Chastain is still the better driver, but Wallace has shown more speed as he aims to make the playoffs.
William Byron to miss Championship Round of 4 (-120, bet365)
For the third straight season, Byron was the first driver to win multiple races. He won three of the first eight races, looking like the championship favorite.
Since a third-place finish at Charlotte, it has been downhill.
He has finished 15th or worse in five of the eight races, failing to lead a lap.
He remains one of the championship favorites because of his playoff points, but speed is a bigger issue.
Right now, there are at least six or seven drivers with more speed every week.
The playoff points only will carry him so far.
His current pace won’t be enough to outrun the favorites and make the Round of 4.
Winning manufacturer: Toyota (+120, bet365)
Toyota has the fewest drivers in the field, but the manufacturer has a strong footing in the championship. Hamlin and Bell are the favorites, and Reddick isn’t far behind.
Martin Truex Jr. and Ty Gibbs should also qualify for the playoffs.
Bell should be the favorite to win the title.
He has the second-most playoff points and won at Phoenix earlier. Hamlin is one of the top contenders every week and has the playoff points to make a run.
Reddick is having an extremely consistent season and draws similarities to Blaney’s 2023 season.
He wasn’t a championship contender, but got hot at the right time and won the title.
Bell and Hamlin are easily top-three contenders, with Reddick just a little behind.
And don’t count out Truex in his final full-time season.
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Exact finish: 1. Christopher Bell, 2. Ryan Blaney (25/1, bet365)
We still have 14 races left in the season and anything can happen.
It makes sense to take one long-shot bet, and I’m backing the two best drivers at Phoenix.
Phoenix is the championship race, so being fast at the track is crucial.
Bell showed what he can do by winning this year’s spring race.
Meanwhile, Blaney has six straight top-five finishes at the track.
As it currently stands, both drivers are top-five in playoff points.
Bell has back-to-back Round of 4 appearances, and Blaney won the title last season.
They both have a good shot at competing for the championship.
I like Bell to win the title, with Blaney finishing second.
