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The qualifying offer — almost certain to be extended to looming free-agent stars such as Pete Alonso and Juan Soto — currently projects at $21.2 million, The Post has learned.
This is based on initial projections by the league. MLB and the Players Association do not finalize the qualifying offer — which is based on the mean salary of the top 125 paid players from the current season — until October. But these initial projections are that it will be a record at a little over $21 million with the current expectation being just about $21.2 million.
The previous record high was last offseason at $20.325 million. The increase is 4.3 percent, which is better than the 3.4 percent from 2022 ($19.65 million) to last year, but less, for example, than the 6.8 percent jump from 2021 ($18.4 million) to 2022.
Teams must decide by five days after the World Series whether to tender a qualifying offer to a free agent. Players have until 4 p.m. on Nov. 19 to accept or reject. If the player accepts this offseason, for example, he is a signed player at $21.2 million for the 2025 season. If the player rejects, he is a free agent and the team that extended the qualifying offer receives draft-pick compensation when the player signs elsewhere.
In general, most players reject the qualifying offer — just 13 of 131 players made the offer since its inception in 2012 have accepted. All seven players made the $20.325 million qualifying offer last offseason, including Shohei Ohtani, rejected it.
Players who have been made the qualifying offer previously such as Cody Bellinger, Matt Chapman, Nathan Eovaldi and Blake Snell cannot be made the qualifying offer again — all four of those players have player options for 2025 that they can reject and become free agents. Players who switched teams during the season such as looming free agents Jack Flaherty and Yusei Kikuchi also cannot be made the qualifying offer.
Without a severe change like a significant injury, free agents such as Alonso, Soto, Baltimore’s Corbin Burnes and Atlanta’s Max Fried will be made qualifying offers and almost certainly reject it.
It is the next tier of players on which there will be questions. The Brewers, for example, will probably put the qualifying offer on shortstop Willy Adames believing he will reject it and — even if he didn’t — Adames is a good deal on a one-year contract to either keep or trade. Will a heavily payroll-conscious team such as the Orioles do the same with Anthony Santander? Will the Padres, who already have so many big contracts, run the risk of Ha-Seong Kim accepting the one-year deal? Would Arizona make first baseman Christian Walker the qualifying offer?
The Dodgers would probably make the qualifying offer to Teoscar Hernandez, who is having a good year and actually is making more in 2023 ($23.5 million) than the expected qualifying offer.
The Yankees almost certainly would not risk making Gleyber Torres the qualifying offer because of a strong possibility he accepts it coming off of a subpar season.
The Mets might have among the most interesting decisions. Sean Manaea almost certainly will reject his $13.5 million player option for 2025 without a downturn in performance or health the rest of the way. He could be looking at something like a three-year, $45 million or more deal now this offseason. So his annual value will likely fall well short of $21.2 million. But would the Mets feel comfortable paying a bit of a premium for just one more year of Manaea rather than gambling on a longer pact, with the potential of getting draft-pick compensation if he signed elsewhere? The Mets could consider the same with Luis Severino.
