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I was thrilled when the Mets traded for Paul Blackburn at the deadline, as it took some of the pressure off guys like Tylor Megill, Christian Scott, Jose Quintana and … Sean Manaea.
Manaea — Monday’s starting pitcher for the Mets — has been a regular fade candidate of mine this year.
He continues to lose juice on his sinker-sweeper combination, leading to fewer ground balls (37 percent), fewer strikeouts (24 percent) and more walks (10 percent).
His 3.50 ERA looks fine, but it’s buoyed by a low BABIP (.265) and high strand rate (75 percent) — he should pitch closer to his 4.30 expected ERA as the season progresses.
Conversely, Andre Pallante — Monday’s starting pitcher for the Cardinals — should see some positive regression down the stretch, pairing a 4.04 ERA with a 3.56 expected ERA.
He’s among the best ground-ball pitchers in MLB (62 percent), which is surprising given how often he goes to his 4-Seamer (51 percent usage).
I prefer the Cardinals starting pitcher in this matchup. I also prefer their bullpen — behind Ryan Helsley and JoJo Romero, St. Louis has the seventh-lowest reliever ERA in baseball (3.62), while the Mets rank 17th in that metric (4.11).
The Mets have the better lineup, but the Cardinals are consistently an above-average lineup that’s trending upward, posting a 110 wRC+ over the past month.
Nolan Arenado and Willson Contreras have settled in more as the weather has heated up.
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Ultimately, I believe the Cardinals have a pitching advantage across all nine innings Monday, and the Mets don’t have enough firepower in the batter’s box to compensate.
I’m betting on Pallante and the Cardinals to outduel Manaea and the Mets.
THE PLAY: Cardinals moneyline (-103, BetRivers)
