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Week 1 overreactions were in full swing on Monday morning. Nothing gets overanalyzed quite like the first weekend of the NFL season.
The Jets will be the subject of overanalysis on Tuesday morning no matter how Monday night’s game with the 49ers plays out.
Quarterback Aaron Rodgers mentioned what the perception will be of the Jets based off this outcome: “[If] we win, the headline’s going to be we’re going to the Super Bowl, we lose, same old Jets.”
You can’t sum it up better than that.
But sometimes the overreactions to the first game turn out to be right. Here is a look at the last 10 Jets openers — how they went, the reaction and whether they were a sign of things to come.
2014: Jets 19, Raiders 14
This game is not very memorable other than for it being Derek Carr’s first game. The Jets won the game but no one was celebrating after this one. It was pretty clear the Jets had issues. They committed 11 penalties and turned it over twice.
Those bad signs ended up being correct. The Jets lost their next eight games on their way to a 4-12 record and the firing of coach Rex Ryan and general manager John Idzik.
2015: Jets 31, Browns 10
This was Todd Bowles’ first game as Jets coach and the debut of Johnny Manziel, who entered after Josh McCown was knocked out of the game. The Jets dominated on both sides of the ball. The Ryan Fitzpatrick-led offense had 333 yards and four touchdowns. The defense forced five turnovers.
There were a lot of high hopes that the Jets finally had a competent offense after this one and it turns out they did. The 2015 offense was the best the Jets have had this decade with Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker at receiver. The team went 10-6 and barely missed the playoffs.
2016: Bengals 23, Jets 22
The Jets ran it back with mostly the same team from the year before. The offense sputtered in this one, settling for field goals three times in the red zone. Usually reliable kicker Nick Folk missed an extra point that loomed large at the end. The Jets sacked Bengals quarterback Andy Dalton seven times but gave up passes of 54, 54 and 49 yards.
This one was met with some criticism but there was still a feeling the Jets would figure things out. It ended up being a lost season. The team went 5-11 and underwent a massive overhaul. This was also one of the first clues that Darrelle Revis had slipped. A.J. Green had 12 catches for 180 yards, mostly against Revis. This was his last season with the Jets.
2017: Bills 21, Jets 12
The Jets played terribly this day, which is what everyone expected. Remember, this was the year everyone expected the Jets to go 0-16 to get the No. 1 pick and their future quarterback – speculated to be Sam Darnold at the time. These Bills were not the Bills we’ve come to know. Their playoff drought was still ongoing and Sean McDermott was in his first year.
The Jets actually ended up being better than expected and went 5-11.
2018: Jets 48, Lions 17
If you want to talk about misleading openers, this is the one. Everyone was flying high after Darnold’s debut resulted in a 31-point victory. Fans were chanting “J-E-T-S” and Darnold’s name behind the bench at the end after he threw two touchdowns.
Hopes were high and then they crashed. The Jets lost their next three games and ended up only winning three more times that season, leading to the firing of Bowles.
2019: Bills 17, Jets 16
Adam Gase’s debut was ugly, a definite sign of things to come. The Jets blew a 16-point lead. This was C.J. Mosley’s first game as a Jet and he had a huge game with a pick-six and a fumble recovery but the game swung when he was injured early in the fourth quarter. The Jets lost six of their next seven games and finished the season 7-9.
2020: Bills 27, Jets 17
This might be the most deceiving score ever. The Jets were abysmal in this game. They went three-and-out on their first three drives and five total. They committed nine penalties. Darnold was awful. There was no overreaction here. The Jets went 2-14.
2021: Panthers 19, Jets 14
The Jets debuts of Robert Saleh and Zach Wilson. The Jets entered this one with no expectations and did not really change anyone’s mind. Wilson was hit 10 times and sacked six times, a sign of things to come from the offensive line. This game set the tone for a 4-13 season where it felt like you were always looking ahead to better days.
2022: Ravens 24, Jets 9
Lamar Jackson threw three touchdowns and the Jets were a sloppy mess. Joe Flacco played in place of an injured Wilson and struggled. The Jets ended up not being as bad (7-10) as they looked on this day but it was a sign they could not compete with the top teams in the NFL yet.
2023: Jets 22, Bills 16
This was maybe the strangest opener ever. The Jets overcame a 10-point deficit to beat their division rivals in overtime on a 65-yard Xavier Gipson punt return. But no one was celebrating. Aaron Rodgers tore his left Achilles tendon on the fourth play of the game and the season was thrown into doubt.
This was no overreaction. The Jets were a mess at quarterback without Rodgers. This win actually provided some false hope that the Jets would be OK with Wilson back at quarterback.
