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When the NFL announced its “Thursday Night Football” schedule in May, the Week 4 matchup between the New York Giants and Dallas Cowboys looked worthy of prime time.
But after disappointing 1-2 starts for both teams, this NFC East battle has lost some luster.
After dropping their first two games, the Giants rebounded with a gritty performance last week, beating the Cleveland Browns on the road.
Meanwhile, Dallas has dropped back-to-back home games.
The Cowboys opened as four-point favorites but moved as high as -6 at a few sportsbooks, with 87 percent of the bets and 92 percent of the money on Dallas.
Can the Cowboys get back on the right track or will the Giants run their winning streak to two games?
Here are our best bets for “TNF.”
Cowboys vs. Giants spread
Both teams enter this matchup 1-2 on the moneyline and against the spread.
Since their Week 1 loss to Minnesota, the Giants have been much more competitive, losing to a Washington team that beat the Bengals on the road by three points and impressively defeating the Browns by six on the road.
It would have been more but Devin Singletary took a dive at the one-yard line to put the Giants in victory formation.
Even their loss to Washington could have been a win if Graham Gano had not been injured on the opening kickoff.
While the Giants’ secondary is one of the weaker units in the league, and would normally be a vulnerable part of their defense, they won’t have to cover the Cowboys receivers for long.
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That luxury can be attributed to a combination of two factors: the Giants’ impressive pash rush (second in sack percentage and sixth in pash rushing grade, per PFF) and Dallas’ inexperienced offensive line, which features two tackles (Tyler Guyton and Terence Steele) who are the 67th and 73rd-highest-graded at their position.
Ultimately, Dallas is spiraling while the Giants’ confidence is growing by the day.
The Cowboys might be able to squeak out a narrow road win, but six points away from home is a pretty sizable line given the rough state of the favorite.
Let’s back the G-Men on the spread.
Recommendation: Giants +6 (-110, BetMGM)
The total
The total for this matchup has held relatively steady at 45 points, slightly above where the line opened (44.5).
Through the first three weeks, Dallas has put together a 3-0 record on the Over, while the Giants own an 0-3 Over record.
Despite their penchant for playing in low-scoring games, we could be in for a shootout Thursday night.
The Giants have improved on offense, scoring three offensive touchdowns in each of their past two games.
Betting on the NFL?
It certainly doesn’t hurt backers of the over that the Cowboys have been nothing short of an atrocity on defense, allowing opponents to post the third-most points on the fifth-most total yards per game.
Altogether, PFF has Dallas ranked as the second-worst defense in the NFL through the first three weeks.
Even a below-average Giants offense should have some success, especially with Singletary and Malik Nabers playing as well as they have been.
This is a fair price for a line I’d set around two points higher.
Recommendation: Over 45 points (-110, BetMGM).
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Andrew Norton handicaps the NBA, WNBA, NFL, college basketball and football, UFC and golf. During the 2022-23 NBA season, he achieved a standout 14.1% ROI, cashing 60% of his NBA spread picks and leading Tallysight in its SportsIQ metric.
