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The Post’s Erich Richter makes his picks and predictions for Week 18 of the NFL season.
Sunday
49ers +4.5 over CARDINALS
Even without Brock Purdy this week, the 49ers were just 3.5-point underdogs to the Lions at home and are now +4.5 on the road to the Cardinals.
How much do we think Purdy is worth to the spread?
San Francisco played a really tight game with one of the league’s best offenses and now faces a terrible Cardinals run defense that has allowed five yards per carry since Week 10.
San Francisco is seconds in yards per play this season (6.3) and fifth in yards per play allowed (5.2).
There is nothing statistically that shows the 49ers should be underdogs here as Joshua Dobbs prepares to start the season finale.
Giants +3 over EAGLES
Normally, the Giants would be 14-point underdogs or worse to the Eagles. Now, the Giants’ “A-Team” will face the “C Team” of the 13-3 Eagles, who still have plenty of talent throughout their roster.
It appears backup QB Kenny Pickett will sit as third-stringer Tanner McKee starts for Philadelphia.
McKee looked excellent in his NFL debut, but the Giants players are still trying to win games, for whatever that is worth.
I wouldn’t bet it personally, but I expect the Giants to win a second game in a row as Brian Daboll makes his case to keep his job.
PACKERS -10 over Bears
Chicago has the fifth-fewest yards per play in the NFL over the past three weeks (4.7), and it has the lowest figure overall in the NFL this year (4.6).
Neither team is sitting their starters, so we’re going to get a fully operational Packers offense that has the fifth-best yards per play average.
Chicago’s offensive line is hitting embarrassing levels — allowing Caleb Williams to be sacked 68 times, by far the most in the league.
FALCONS -8.5 over Panthers
Michael Penix Jr. is not all that and a bag of chips, but Bijan Robinson certainly is.
He is 10th in yards per carry, while the Panthers allowed an obscene 6.1 yards per carry since Week 11, by far the worst.
Robinson and Tyler Allgeier get plenty of runways as the Panthers struggle to hold down the fort.
BUCCANEERS -14 over Saints
Not only are you playing the Saints, but you’re playing most of their backups.
Alvin Kamara won’t be out there at running back for the Saints, and Spencer Rattler gets back in there to start at quarterback in place of injured Derek Carr.
Tampa Bay needs this game, which we know, but the Saints have been horrific in recent weeks.
They were shut out by the Packers two weeks ago and scored just 10 points against the Raiders.
COWBOYS +6.5 over Commanders
Still playing hard, just not playing well. Starters should be out there for both teams, but the Commanders rely so much on Jayden Daniels and his legs that even in a game like this, I expect them to take it a bit easier than usual.
Daniels had led Washington in rushing yards in three straight games (all wins) and has taken some brutal hits.
BRONCOS -11 over Chiefs
The Chiefs beat the Chargers last year while starting their backups and now head into a double bye week after earning the No. 1 seed in the AFC.
For now the Chiefs are expected to start Carson Wentz, though you should get to know the name Chris Oladokun if you are to bet on Kansas City.
He’s the third-stringer and will surely get some time as the Chiefs sit nearly their entire team.
COLTS -5 over Jaguars
Pat McAfee wants this entire team to enter the transfer portal, but not before they screw up the Colts’ draft position.
Jacksonville is 26th in defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA) this season, with their defense rated No. 32.
The Colts should win this one easy if they haven’t totally quit on their coach.
Texans +1.5 over TITANS
I’m predicting the Titans to go 2-15 against the spread, the worst number in the NFL since at least 2003, the latest data was available.
Houston has played poorly in recent weeks, but the Titans passing offense is bad enough (22nd in DVOA) that they should be able to throw enough to snag a win.
Houston still has the No. 2 defense, according to DVOA.
This betting line makes no sense unless Vegas has inside info that the Texans aren’t playing this game seriously.
Dolphins -1 over JETS
The Jets can’t stop the run, coming in No. 24 against it, according to DVOA.
Between De’Von Achane and Raheem Mostert, there’s no reason this game should be particularly close, considering even Jets players are saying that some are mentally checked out.
This team has no pride
Bills -3 over PATRIOTS
New England curiously announced Drake Maye as questionable to start. I think they’ve seen all they’ve needed this year: a future star.
Meanwhile, Buffalo will play a majority of backup players while Josh Allen takes a seat for Mitch Trubisky.
Chargers -4.5 over RAIDERS
This line suggests the Chargers will play most of their starters, which is the only case for betting them here. The Raiders are rated No. 27 in DVOA, and the Chargers are No. 9.
If you look to the sidelines, you’ll see a massive mismatch in Jim Harbaugh vs. Antonio Pierce.
Be on high alert for the injury reports here, but we must project this out. Many Chargers players, including J.K. Dobbins, have incentives to hit this week.
Assuming starters play their usual snap count, we’re like the Chargers.
Betting on the NFL?
Seahawks -6.5 over RAMS
Geno Smith has a bonus that pays out $2 million if the Seahawks win 10 games this season, so we know he wants this one.
The Rams are sitting nearly their entire offense as they prepare for the playoffs, while the Seahawks are out of the playoff hunt.
They should be able to snag the win here with ease.
Vikings +3 over LIONS
Everyone will be betting this one as two of the league’s best face off in a potential NFC Championship preview.
The Vikings are the healthier team in this spot with a solid defense.
For the stat nerds out there, the way to beat Sam Darnold is good zone coverage schemes — he has the league third-best QB rating against man coverage (124.3) and the 20th versus zone (93.7).
Detroit plays mostly man coverage (and plays it well, with 54.1 percent completions, which is second-best), but their zone coverage is horrific (74.7 percent completions, which is the fifth worst).
Confidently back the Vikings on “Sunday Night Football.”
Last week: 4-7 Season: 109-121-3.
