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The Post’s Erich Richter makes his picks and predictions for Week 10 of the NFL season.
Sunday
Falcons (-3.5) over SAINTS
The Falcons are a dark-horse Super Bowl team, having won four of their past five.
Kirk Cousins is cruising, and Drake London is expected to play.
There is some concern that a new coach can jump-start an embarrassing Saints squad, but I’m not interested in backing them here.
This is partly because Bijan Robinson is among the best running backs in the league, and the Saints are allowing the second-most yards per carry this year (5.1).
New Orleans gets barrelled over in Week 10.
Panthers (+6.5) over Giants
The Giants haven’t been favored since Week 2 of 2023, when they did not cover in a win against the Cardinals.
The Giants are not as bad as their record currently says — they are 23rd in DVOA, ahead of Dallas and Cleveland.
The reason to back the Panthers against the spread is Big Blue’s run defense — it is the worst in the league.
Considering the Giants couple that with the worst red-zone touchdown percentage in the NFL (40).
The Giants aren’t covering a touchdown spread if they can’t score one more than half the time they get there.
Broncos (+8) over CHIEFS
The Broncos get a sack on 9.75 percent of throws, the third-best number in the NFL.
The undefeated Chiefs have a big game next week against the Bills, potentially complicating this game against Denver.
My model has the Chiefs as five-point favorites, so we’re getting a big number where backdoor covers are all the more likely in today’s NFL, when every team is going for 2.
Bills (-4) over COLTS
The Bills are among the top five in yards per play and yards per play allowed.
Buffalo is well-coached on defense and reloads with ease, while Joe Flacco could be under siege throughout the weekend and is missing top receiver Michael Pittman Jr.
49ers (-6.5) over BUCCANEERS
The 49ers are second in the league against the pass according to DVOA.
If Tampa Bay had its receivers, it would be more than reasonable for it to cover for even beat the 49ers.
The Buccaneers are now missing Chris Godwin, Mike Evans and Jalen McMillan.
Too many injuries to overcome against the 49ers, who are getting back Christian McCaffrey.
Steelers (+3) over COMMANDERS
This is the only top-10 DVOA defense Jayden Daniels has faced this year.
Chicago profiles as the best defensive matchup they had, ranking No. 11, and the Commanders scored just 18 points, six of those coming on a Hail Mary.
Hail Marys won’t work here. Mike Tomlin is a spiritual man.
There is no way the Commanders should be favored by three.
Vikings (-7) over JAGUARS
If you watched Mac Jones at all in the preseason or in mop-up duty, you saw a quarterback who was a shell of his former self.
As a starter last year, Jones had the fifth-lowest success rate on plays against a blitz.
Brian Flores and the Vikings blitz the second-most in the NFL and are second in turnover-worthy plays forced, per FTN.
Minnesota should roll here despite being on the road.
Patriots (+6) over BEARS
Neither team is good in this one. Chicago allows the fourth-most yards per carry and has the third-worst run DVOA in the league.
New England doesn’t play well against the run either.
They’re the fifth-worst in run defense DVOA.
The vibes are terrible in Chicago right now, and Rhamondre Stevenson should be able to help keep this one close.
Titans (+7.5) over CHARGERS
Los Angeles has changed its strategy in recent weeks, letting Justin Herbert loose when throwing the ball.
After averaging 23.25 pass attempts per game through four weeks, the Chargers have followed that up by averaging 33 pass attempts per game in the four weeks following.
The Titans are allowing the fewest yards per pass attempt in the NFL and are a top-10 defense according to DVOA.
Just expect a low-scoring affair in which the Chargers win a tight one.
Eagles (-7) over COWBOYS
No one trusts Nick Siranni, based on this line — Cooper Rush is Dallas starting at quarterback.
Fantasy Life projects that the Dak Prescott move to Rush is worth 5.2 points against the spread.
Dallas opened as +3 against the spread, so we’re getting a point of value here and seven is a critical number.
This is a great wager.
Jets (-1.5) over CARDINALS
Advanced analytics have determined this is the worst betting line of the weekend and that the Jets should never be favored here. Nevertheless, the sharps are moving this line all over.
The Jets opened at +1 and have been moved to favorite status.
The sharp bettors continue to back Gang Green, and I’ll do the same.
The Jets had 10 days to prepare to keep their season alive with another win.
TEXANS (+3.5) over Lions
Nico Collins is the most important piece of the Texans offense, sans-C.J. Stroud.
With their star receiver trending toward playing this weekend, the Lions, who have passed every test this season, might have a tough time covering him.
Remember the Texans defense is no pushover either, ranking second in DVOA on defense.
Betting on the NFL?
Monday
RAMS (-1.5) over Dolphins
Two teams that have been injured all season face off.
It seemed like they were both healthy, but now it appears that Tyreek Hill won’t suit up on “Monday Night Football.”
It’s anyone’s guess whether he actually will play, but there’s no way you can wager on Miami without him out there.
Check the injury reports and wager on the Rams with Hill potentially out this weekend.
Last week: 8-6 Season: 60-68-1.
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting. During the football season he’s showcased massive profits at The Post in the player prop market the last two seasons. While constantly betting long shots, his return on investment is 30.15 percent since 2022.
