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This might as well be the Super Bowl.
It’s the Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes show as the leagues No. 4- (Bills) and No. 8- (Chiefs) ranked teams in defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA) face off.
Kansas City plays host and is favored by 2.5 points at DraftKings after sweeping the Bills in the playoffs in recent seasons.
Mahomes is 3-0 against the Allen in the playoffs despite being 1-3 in the regular season.
We could be looking at an “I own you” scenario, but let’s not forget, it took Peyton Manning until 2006 to bust that that narrative and best Tom Brady in the AFC Championship game.
Could we be looking at a similar result Sunday night?
Bills vs. Chiefs odds
TeamSpreadMoneylineTotalBills+2.5 (-115)+110Over 48.5 (-110)Chiefs-2.5 (-105)-130Under 48.5 (-110)Odds provided by DraftKings
Bills vs. Chiefs prediction
The Chiefs know how to win and they know how to beat the Bills.
Last season, Buffalo missed a game-tying field goal to end their season in the divisional round.
Buffalo has found its formula of run, run, run the ball with James Cook and Josh Allen, while throwing the ball only when absolutely necessary.
Allen attempted just seven passes in the first half against the Ravens, who previously had the best run defense in the NFL.
Kansas City will not win this game if it cannot stop the run.
The same can be said for Travis Kelce if he does not have a strong game.
Betting on the NFL?
He’s a massive part of the Chiefs’ offense and has scored a touchdown in every playoff game he’s played against the Bills.
Last year, he went for five catches and 75 yards and two touchdowns in the 27-24 victory.
The year prior, he went for nine catches, 96 yards and a touchdown after exploding in the 2020 playoffs with 13 catches for 118 yards and two touchdowns.
Those Kelce props are critical when betting this game — if you think the Chiefs win, it’s because Kelce gets them there.
My betting model has the Bills as three-point favorites, giving me quite the edge in this game.
Back the Bills to win this one outright and if you want some reverse correlation on a same-game-parlay, go Over on Kelce’s props and add in Bills moneyline at a big price.
THE PLAY: Bills moneyline (+110, Caesars) | SGP +600: Kelce Over 67.5 receiving yards + Kelce anytime touchdown scorer (+120) + Bills Moneyline (FanDuel)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting. During the football season he’s showcased massive profits at The Post in the player prop market the last two seasons. While constantly betting long shots, his return on investment is 30.15 percent since 2022.
