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I generally steer clear of huge September favorites because some coaches throttle things down when they get a big lead, pare down their playbook, and even request a running clock in some cases.
Indiana’s head coach is not one of those coaches.
Charlotte at Indiana (Noon Eastern, Big Ten Network)
Curt Cignetti is sending a message to the Big Ten: Take Indiana seriously or else.
Leading 42-3 over lowly Western Illinois, Cignetti did not call the dogs off.
He poured on 35 second-half points in a 77-3 laugher.
And when his Hoosiers stepped up in weight class, they continued to run it up against UCLA, rudely welcoming the Bruins to the Big Ten during a 42-13 beatdown.
Now Charlotte rolls into Bloomington and to put it lightly the 49ers are leaking oil.
Their offense was barely functional with Max Brown as their QB1, but the former Florida Gator has been ruled out for this game.
That’s bad news for a Charlotte offense that is bottom 10 in rushing and protecting their quarterbacks.
Last week, Charlotte needed a furious fourth-quarter rally to beat FCS Gardner-Webb by a single point.
The 49ers got it done by hitting big plays, their lone calling card on the offensive side of the ball.
The problem on Saturday is that Indiana is one of the best teams in the country in terms of limiting chunk plays of 20 yards or more.
The Hoosiers have given up just five plays of 20+ yards this season, and rank third nationally in total defense.
If the Indiana defense puts the clamps on third-string quarterback Trexler Ivey, Indiana will need to score 40+ to cover this number comfortably.
I have unwavering confidence in Kurtis “The Maple Missile” Rourke to get that done.
The Canadian import is flourishing in Cignetti’s system.
In Rourke’s last two games, he’s 40-for-50 for 575 yards, six touchdowns, and no picks.
From a clean pocket, Rourke will pick this defense apart.
The 49ers rank 111th in pass rush (PFF) and blitz on 38 percent of their defensive snaps to make up for their lackluster line.
That’s where Indiana is going to hurt the 49ers the most.
When those blitzes don’t get home, Indiana’s pass attack, which ranks first nationally in success rate, will make them pay.
Cignetti is 17-10 against the spread as an FBS head coach, and he appears motivated to win going away. I’m not getting in front of the IU train, I would take the Hoosiers all the way up to -31.
Recommendation: Indiana -28.5.
Rice at Army (Noon. ET, CBSSN)
Generally, the public avoids laying points with a Service Academy, but after opening at two this number has been hammered all the way up to 6.5.
There are two reasons for this.
The first is that Army has looked impressive this season, carrying a six-game winning streak into Saturday.
The Cadets are third in rushing success rate, bullying teams to the tune of 390 yards per game on the ground (No. 1).
Betting on College Football?
There’s also a pair of situational angles to consider:
The first is that Rice hasn’t played a triple option attack in five years.
Army offensive coordinator Cody Worley has added pistol and shotgun wrinkles to the traditional triple option, giving opponents even more homework.
Rice already struggles to stop the run, checking in at 115th in defensive stuff rate and 127th in rush EPA.
And the second situational angle is that Army is coming off a bye.
Since taking the top football job at West Point, Jeff Monken has been a safe bet when his team has a rest advantage.
Monken is 25-16 ATS in such scenarios.
Recommendation: Army -7.
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Mike Calabrese is a handicapper for the New York Post, with a sharp focus on college sports. His betting advice often centers around situational spots, including travel, rest and altitude disparities.
