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In addition to providing a transactional tool for the sports betting world, the point spread is also a gauge of expectations. After all, it is considered the great equalizer.
The Grizzlies have been one of the NBA season’s more pleasant surprises, currently tied for the league’s fifth-best record. Plus, only one team has performed better against the spread (ATS).
Specifically, Memphis is 31-17 ATS, but the betting market tends to adjust to a team’s worth. For example, over the past decade, just three teams have finished a season 20 games above .500 or better ATS. So that would suggest the Grizzlies are likely to hover around .500 ball ATS the rest of the season.
But that analysis only exists in a vacuum and must account for the specific situation.
Memphis is currently off back-to-back losses against the point spread for the fourth time this season. In the three previous instances, Memphis won and covered the next game in convincing fashion.
This implies they often break out of a funk and never play below expectations for that long.
The Grizzlies are 4.5-point road underdogs at the Bucks. Star point guard Ja Morant’s status is uncertain, after missing Thursday’s dramatic, final-minute win over the Rockets.
That all makes this particular handicap a little tricky. Not only is Morant key, but how do we balance Memphis off a huge win over the team they are chasing in the Western Conference standings?
Additionally, the three aforementioned times that Memphis came off back-to-back ATS losses, the Grizzlies were also off an outright loss. That is not the case here. In fact, they’re off an emotional win.
On top of that, Milwaukee is coming off back-to-back losses by double digits, so the Bucks should have tenacity and focus.
Betting on the NBA?
As I put those variables in my mental blender, I still find myself envisioning a Grizzlies offense that is ready to erupt. Though they rallied for the win over Houston, Memphis allowed 19 offensive rebounds to the team that leads the NBA in offensive rebounding percentage.
However, Milwaukee is dead last thus won’t be as physical or resistant, allowing Memphis to get into its transition and offensive flow more easily.
My favorite play is the Grizzlies Over their team total. They lead the league in scoring and rank fifth in offensive efficiency. Though Morant is valuable, they can light it up even if he misses this game.
