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Though George Costanza tried to warn us, worlds will collide.
The Bills host the Broncos as 8.5-point home favorites, creating a fork in the road for two massive betting trends from this past regular season.
First, Denver finished a league-best 12-5 against the point spread (ATS), literally surpassing expectations more than any other team. The betting market continuously adjusts to a team’s performance, yet the Broncos constantly outperformed those expectations.
However, favorites also performed historically well at 142-121-6 ATS (54.0 percent) this regular season, the best mark since 2017 and seventh-best in the Super Bowl era, according to ESPN.
How much do those one-sided records carry over into the postseason, which is clearly a different environment?
“All that is out the window for me. It’s totally situational,” professional bettor James Salinas told Only Players. “I don’t take a lot from the regular season.”
I am backing the Bills. Though I respect Denver’s 10-7 season to reach the playoffs for the first time since 2015, the Broncos were 4-5 ATS in the underdog role with just two outright wins. And both of those came in September.
This team definitely caught the betting market by surprise, after beginning the year with a win total of 5.5. But they eventually resembled an average team that capitalized on weak opponents.
From October to December, Denver did not beat a single team with a .500 record or better. The Broncos racked up wins against bad or subpar teams and now must face a legitimate Super Bowl contender in a hostile environment.
“Over four quarters, Denver will wear down. The offense isn’t going to have enough sustainability to keep the defense on the sidelines. The fatigue will set in,” Salinas said in support of a Bills -8.5 wager.
Betting on the NFL?
On Nov. 3, the Broncos traveled to Baltimore as nine-point underdogs and were outclassed by the Ravens, 41-10. Lamar Jackson completed 16 of 19 passes for 280 yards, thanks to numerous defensive breakdowns. This game should unfold similarly.
Additionally, I am playing the Bills to score over 29.5 points. As professional bettor Adam Chernoff mentioned on “The Simple Handicap” podcast, Allen feasts against man coverage, of which Denver runs a great deal. Allen will lean on the short passing game and his legs to keep the chains moving and generate plenty of points.
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Doug Kezirian is a New York Post contributor who currently serves as the Chief Content Officer for Only Players, a sports betting media company. Doug has over two decades of experience in the betting space, including spending 11 years at ESPN as a host, columnist and betting analyst. He’s also the rare personality who has documented success – 14th place in 2023 Circa Million and Las Vegas SuperContest ($37K), two top-10 finishes in 2022 William Hill College Football Challenge ($58K) and also grabbed headlines with a $297K win on the 2021 NFL Draft.
