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After an exciting final major of the season, we have the 3M Open this week at TPC Twin Cities for the sixth consecutive year.
It is a par-71 that measures 7,431 yards and features three attackable par-5s and a drivable par-4.
While birdies will be made in bunches this week, we can also expect a ton of bogeys and double-bogeys.
With water hazards in play on 15 of the 18 holes, there are as many penalty strokes as any course on the PGA Tour.
If you stray too far offline with your drives or approach shots, you will be in for a long week — or a short one since you might miss the cut.
We’ve seen an eclectic mix of winners at this event over the last five years. Bombers undoubtedly have an advantage, but only if they can keep the ball in the fairway.
Shorter hitters can still contend if they have a good week on approach, especially with their long irons.
Golfers who can avoid bogeys and light it up on the greens should be in great shape.
Here are our best bets for the 3M Open.
Odds via BetMGM but shop around:
Tom Hoge (33/1, Bet365)
Hoge grew up in North Dakota and played a lot of amateur tournaments in Minnesota, so he has plenty of ties to the area.
More importantly, he’s an accurate driver and the best iron player in the field.
The putter has long been his Achilles heel, but he has turned it around a bit this year, gaining at least 2.1 strokes putting in five of his last 16 events.
If he finds a hot putter this week, he should have no problem being in contention on Sunday.
In four appearances at this event, he’s finished in the top 25 three times and nearly won in 2022 (T4).
Keith Mitchell (35/1, Caesars)
Mitchell always scares me at a birdie-fest because he’s an awful putter and you have to putt well in order to shoot somewhere in the 20-under-par range.
While Mitchell has lost strokes putting in nine of his last 11 starts and is near the bottom of that category this season, he has found a way to putt well on this course in the past.
He’s finished T5 in each of his last two appearances at the event, gaining more than 12 strokes putting in the process.
He’s first in this field in strokes gained ball-striking over the last 36 rounds and has a win at a comparative course (PGA National).
He’s one good putting week away from being in contention.
J.T. Poston (35/1, FanDuel)
Poston cleans up at these events.
He’s first in the field in strokes gained per round on courses that have a high greens in regulation rate.
In other words, when everyone is hitting greens in regulation, Poston tends to shine.
He’s also second in the field in strokes gained per round in weak-field events.
He’s accurate off the tee, excellent on approach and one of the best putters on tour.
He also seems to like it in the Twin Cities, as he’s finished T2, T11 and T28 at the course over the last three years.
Betting on golf?
Ben Griffin (50/1, BetMGM)
We’ve seen several long shots win this event over the last five years, so my final pick is a bit of a dark horse in Griffin.
He missed the cut at The Open Championship last week, but so did many of the world’s best golfers.
Before last week, he had made six straight cuts with two top-five finishes.
He’s not long off the tee, but he makes up for it with accuracy.
His iron play continues to improve (top five in this field over the last six months), and he has an elite short game.
In his Twin Cities debut last year, he finished T20.
