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Post prop kingpin Dave Blezow is back with his annual NFL picks to help you cash in with big payouts on Most Valuable Player and league leaders in passing, rushing and receiving yards.
Most Valuable Player
Blezow’s breakdown: MVP has become exclusively a quarterback award.
Lamar Jackson scooped up all 49 first-place votes in 2023 to make it 11 years in a row and 16 of the past 17 for passers.
Christian McCaffrey finished third and Tyreek Hill fifth but they are 11th and tied for 24th, respectively, on the 2024 odds board.
Only three active players have won MVP: Aaron Rodgers (four), Jackson (two), Patrick Mahomes (two).
Josh Allen and Joe Burrow are the heirs apparent and C.J. Stroud has positioned himself as the next big thing.
But the selection here is the favorite, Mahomes. All eyes will be on the Chiefs as they go for a historic threepeat.
The AFC West looks weak so another division title is likely, the Chiefs have a few marquee non-conference road games in which Mahomes can shine and the offense is loaded with Hollywood Brown and Xavier Worthy joining Travis Kelce & Co.
Winner
Patrick Mahomes (+500)
Next man up
Joe Burrow (+900)
Mid-range threat
C.J. Stroud (10/1)
The odds:
Patrick Mahomes +500Josh Allen +850Joe Burrow +900C.J. Stroud +1000Jalen Hurts +1000Jordan Love +1400Brock Purdy +1600Dak Prescott +1800Jared Goff +1800Lamar Jackson +2000Aaron Rodgers +2000Tua Tagovailoa +2500Anthony Richardson 28/1Justin Herbert 30/1Matthew Stafford 30/1Trevor Lawrence 30/1Christian McCaffrey 35/1Kirk Cousins 40/1Caleb Williams 40/1 Kyler Murray 50/1Baker Mayfield 66/1Deshaun Watson 66/1Justin Jefferson 100/1Tyreek Hill 100/1Geno Smith 125/1Ja’Marr Chase 150/1Daniel Jones 150/1Justin Fields 150/1Bryce Young 150/1Will Levis 150/1Russell Wilson 150/1CeeDee Lamb 200/1Puka Nacua 200/1Ryan Tannehill 200/1Micah Parsons 200/1Sam Darnold 200/1Bijan Robinson 250/1Travis Kelce 300/1Maxx Crosby 300/1Breece Hall 300/1Cooper Kupp 300/1Davante Adams 300/1Deebo Samuel 300/1Derrick Henry 300/1Saquon Barkley 300/1Raheem Mostert 300/1Jahmyr Gibbs 300/1Stefon Diggs 300/1Odds provided by BetMGM
Passing yards
Blezow’s breakdown: Passing yards and MVP are different animals.
Consider in 2023, Tua Tagovailoa threw for the most yards and didn’t receive a single MVP vote.
Mahomes went from first in 2022 to sixth last season, but his odds have doubled to a more manageable +500.
Joe Burrow is sitting at an enticing +800 and both he and Ja’Marr Chase are healthy, but the Bengals could face some bad weather in the final three weeks and that could tamp down the numbers.
Mahomes is very much a threat in a stacked KC offense.
Houston’s Stroud adds Stefon Diggs and pass-catching RB Joe Mixon.
But the choice is a Tagovailoa repeat playing with Tyreek Hill in good weather at +850.
Winner
Tua Tagovailoa (+850)
Super soph
C.J. Stroud (+600)
Live long shot
Brock Purdy (25/1)
The odds:
Patrick Mahomes +500C.J. Stroud +600Dak Prescott +750Jared Goff +800Tua Tagovailoa +850Joe Burrow +850Kirk Cousins +1400Matthew Stafford +1500Jordan Love +1500Josh Allen +2000Aaron Rodgers +2500Brock Purdy +2500Trevor Lawrence +2500Caleb Williams +2500Will Levis +2500Jalen Hurts 30/1Justin Herbert 35/1Baker Mayfield 40/1Deshaun Watson 45/1 Geno Smith 45/1Odds provided by BetMGM
Rushing yards
Blezow’s breakdown: Probably the most interesting category this season.
Legend Derrick Henry is now a Raven and is available at 10/1.
Christian McCaffrey is the heavy favorite after winning by almost 300 yards but it’s hard to pay the +300 premium with his injury history.
The 49ers offense may also evolve more in the direction of Brock Purdy and big-money WR Brandon Aiyuk.
Health is also a concern for Jonathan Taylor, Saquon Barkley and even Breece Hall, a year removed from his knee injury.
The most intriguing vehicle on the rehab lot is Kyren Williams, whose 95.3 yards per game were the highest in the NFL.
The choice is motivated ex-Raider Josh Jacobs, who seems like a good fit in Green Bay.
Winner
Josh Jacobs (15/1)
Mid-range threat
Kyren Williams (12/1)
Way under the radar
Kenneth Williams III (30/1)
The odds:
Christian McCaffrey +300Jonathan Taylor +600Saquon Barkley +700Breece Hall +800Derrick Henry +1000Bijan Robinson +1200Kyren Williams +1200Josh Jacobs +1500De’Von Achane +2000Zamir White +2000Isiah Pacheco +2500Nick Chubb +2500Jahmyr Gibbs +2500Travis Etienne +3000Kenneth Walker III +3000Joe Mixon +3000Rachaad White 35/1Alvin Kamara 40/1David Montgomery 40/1 James Cook 40/1Odds provided by BetMGM
Receiving yards
Blezow’s breakdown: Another market that can go any which way because a receiver’s yardage is largely dependent on his health, that of his quarterback, the style of offense and even whether the defense is good enough to get off the field.
As an example, Justin Jefferson may be the best receiver in the NFL but how far will his numbers be dragged down by Sam Darnold?
Will Aaron Rodgers take Garrett Wilson to another level?
I’ve already picked Tagovailoa to lead in passing yards so that would give Hill a great shot to repeat if I’m correct.
Ja’Marr Chase at +900 is hard to pass up.
But the selection is CeeDee Lamb of the Cowboys, who lost out to Hill by just 50 yards in 2023.
Winner
Cee Dee Lamb (+700)
Fine favorite
Tyreek Hill (+450)
Mid-range threat
Amon-Ra St. Brown (11/1)
The odds:
Tyreek Hill +450CeeDee Lamb +700Ja’Marr Chase +900Justin Jefferson +1000Amon-Ra St. Brown +1100A.J. Brown +1200Garrett Wilson +1500Drake London +1800Puka Nacua +2000DJ Moore +2000Chris Olave +2000Nico Collins +2000Michael Pittman +2000Davante Adams +2000Devonta Smith +2200Stefon Diggs +2500Brandon Aiyuk +2500Mike Evans +2500Jaylen Waddle +2500Cooper Kupp +3000Odds provided by BetMGM
Other NFL wagers worth making
In 2023, this side helping of props went 2-2. We cashed on Kyle Pitts Under 700.5 receiving yards and Texans Over 5.5 wins.
Aaron Rodgers’ torn Achilles flushed our other two bets: Jets to win AFC East and Garrett Wilson Over 8.5 receiving TDs.
The five-year record is 12-8 heading into these four predictions:
Betting on the NFL?
* Daniel Jones Over 2,675.5 yards passing (-120): The Giants could be trailing a lot, they drafted Malik Nabers for Jones, and Danny Dimes might be less eager to run because of his knee injury.
* Patriots Under 4.5 wins (+110): It will be fun for fans of all teams to watch the utter destruction of the Patriots in Year 1 after Bill Belichick. They have the second-hardest schedule per Sharp Football.
* Keon Coleman Over 650.5 yards (-115): Josh Allen will need a new favorite target with Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis gone. The rookie from Florida State fits the Bill.
* Chargers Over 8.5 wins (-160): The Bolts lost a lot of firepower but Jim Harbaugh will build a more rugged group around Justin Herbert. Lots of potential W’s on the second-easiest schedule.
