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The NFC South should again be the worst division in the NFL, with the Buccaneers, Panthers, and Saints all projected to win eight or fewer games in 2024.
The Saints and Bucs boasted identical 9-8 records that were inflated, considering most of their wins came against sub-.500 teams.
Can the Panthers and Kirk Cousins-led Falcons make the division more interesting in 2024, or will we see another two-team battle for the top spot?
Check out our NFC South preview and best bet, with current win totals and odds via DraftKings.
Buccaneers: 7.5 wins (-150/+125)
The revival of Baker Mayfield was the most exciting story in 2023 for the Buccaneers, a team that had to quickly find a quarterback solution after Tom Brady’s retirement.
Mayfield threw for more than 4,000 yards for the first time in his career, using his arm and fearlessness to guide the Bucs to a winning record and a postseason appearance.
After his promising season, Tampa Bay overpaid for Mayfield, which could hamstring the team in the future. Luckily, star wide receiver Mike Evans took a more reasonable deal. At 32, he’s a bit older now, but his production has not slowed.
Re-signing Antoine Winfield Jr. could be the difference between being a playoff team again and being irrelevant in the worst division in the NFL, so the Bucs did what was needed.
Falcons: 9.5 wins (-135/+115)
Atlanta signed Cousins to address its horrendous quarterback play from last season and gave him some help by bringing in Rondale Moore and Darnell Mooney to join Kyle Pitts, Bijan Robinson and Drake London as key offensive weapons.
Then the Falcons took Michael Penix Jr. with the eighth overall pick in the draft despite having just signed Cousins to a massive deal.
Even with that mysterious decision, the Falcons have the most talented offensive unit in the NFC South, so they won’t have trouble scoring points. However, how successful the team can be will be determined by the defense taking another step forward.
Panthers: 5.5 wins (-115/-105)
The Panthers helped quarterback Bryce Young in the offseason by signing offensive linemen Robert Hunt and Damien Lewis and trading for wide receiver Diontae Johnson. It’s clear they are not going to give up on Young, nor should they; rookie quarterbacks on abysmal teams are already well behind the eight ball.
Unfortunately for the Panthers, they overpaid in free agency and didn’t retain pass rusher Brian Burns, which could complicate things for Carolina, which had a somewhat respectable defensive unit last season.
Saints: 7.5 wins (-120/+100)
Last season, the Saints narrowly missed a playoff appearance, and based on their moves in the offseason, they must believe they can get there in 2024. After all, their financial picture indicates an “all-in” play.
The Saints signed defensive end Chase Young and linebacker Willie Gay to join a unit that includes Tyrann Mathieu, Cameron Jordan and Marshon Lattimore. This unit is rock-solid on paper and could help aid an underwhelming offense.
However, age and health are significant concerns, and considering the Saints are nowhere near contending status, their offseason and general direction make little sense.
Betting on the NFL?
NFC South best bet
While the Falcons could have improved their roster even more by passing up on Penix to draft a defensive player they could put on the field immediately, they are still the most talented in an otherwise awful division.
With the easiest strength of schedule in the NFL this season, their path to a 10-win season should be straightforward in a division that failed to improve.
Recommendation: Falcons over 9.5 wins (-135, DraftKings).
