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We’re nearing the start of what should be another exciting NFL campaign, as the Chiefs look to defend yet another Super Bowl title.
While Kansas City’s recent championship marked the ninth time a franchise won back-to-back titles in the Super Bowl era, no team has ever won three straight.
One reason the NFL is so beloved by its fans is its parity.
Given the league’s salary cap and revenue sharing, it’s not uncommon to see teams that were once struggling at the bottom of their division make a massive leap to the top.
As a result, bettors could find some value in the market when trying to project which team will finish with the best record during the regular season.
Recent history of NFL teams with the best record
Bookmakers are generally spot-on when setting odds in this market.
According to Tom Brolley at Fantasy Points, teams with odds of +900 or shorter earned at least a share of the best record in six of the last eight seasons.
Only the Ravens (14/1 in 2019 and 33/1 in 2023) finished with longer odds and the best record during that span.
This season, only two teams (49ers at +750 and Chiefs at +850) begin the year with odds at +900 or lower.
If we had to pick one of the two, strength of schedule would be one metric we could use to find the best option.
Chiefs can benefit from softer schedule
In 2023, Kansas City had the third-toughest schedule, as projected by Sharp Football.
Based on the NFL’s rotating scheduling formula, the Chiefs played six home-and-away games against teams in their division while also playing every team in the AFC East and NFC North.
As the winner of the AFC West, Kansas City went on to match up against other division winners in the AFC North (Cincinnati), AFC South (Jacksonville) and NFC East (the Eagles).
If we look at this season, we know the Chiefs will have six games against division opponents.
They’ll also face each team in the AFC North and NFC South, along with the NFC West winners, the San Francisco 49ers.
With only one team (Tampa Bay) in the NFC South making the playoffs last year, the Chiefs have a softer schedule on paper with a ranking of 12th in terms of difficulty.
Kansas City’s offensive struggles were well documented last season, yet it still won the Super Bowl.
The Chiefs added free agent Marquise Brown to upgrade their wide receiver position and also selected Texas receiver Xavier Worthy with the 28th pick in the first round of the draft.
Kansas City received an “A” as its offseason grade from Pro Football Focus, and with an even stronger team this year, the quest for the best record in the NFL is well within reach.
Falcons’ QB upgrade makes them legitimate contender
If you’re looking for a team with slightly longer odds, the Falcons could surprise this season.
Atlanta signed Kirk Cousins to a long-term deal, and the former Vikings quarterback was an MVP front-runner last year before suffering a season-ending injury.
Betting on the NFL?
The Falcons have struggled at the quarterback position since trading Matt Ryan to the Colts in 2022 for a third-round pick.
Atlanta will have the softest team schedule thanks to being in the NFC South, and if Cousins can stay healthy, the Falcons could be in line for a big year.
Best bets for best regular-season record: Chiefs (+800, FanDuel); Falcons (18/1, FanDuel)
