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The 2023 season was a theatrical climax to Michigan’s profound return to glory.
The Wolverines won their first national championship of the College Football Playoff era, cementing Jim Harbaugh’s legacy as one of the best coaches in the sport’s history.
Entering the 2024 season, things change dramatically for the Maize and Blue.
Harbaugh has left for the NFL, handing the reins to Sherrone Moore, who was elevated from offensive coordinator.
Let’s take a look at Michigan’s personnel and schedule to see if there’s any betting value in the current futures markets.
Offensive outlook
Michigan set a school record with 13 players taken in the NFL draft, a list that includes last season’s leading passer (J.J. McCarthy), rusher (Blake Corum), and receiver (Roman Wilson).
Alex Orji, who is expected to get first crack as the starting quarterback, has attempted just one pass in two years in Ann Arbor, but he provides enormous upside with his powerful frame and athletic prowess.
Donovan Edwards is poised for a massive season as Michigan’s starting running back after he was one of the heroes of the national championship game.
Tight end Colston Loveland is arguably the best in the country at his position.
Michigan’s top six offensive linemen in snaps from last season are gone. Graduate Josh Priebe should be next in line as a seasoned starter upfront after Michigan had success with similar transfers in recent years.
Defensive outlook
With defensive coordinator Jesse Minter following Harbaugh to the Chargers, the Wolverines hired veteran NFL DC Don “Wink” Martindale, who has been coaching defense since 1986 but hasn’t coached at the college level since 2003.
His defenses typically feature more aggressive man coverage and blitzing than we saw in recent years under Minter and Mike Macdonald, so it will be fascinating to see how different ideologies are blended. Regardless, this defense is loaded with talent despite the departure of several prominent players.
Defensive linemen Mason Graham and Kenneth Grant will be arguably the best one-two punch in the country, while cornerback Will Johnson is a likely future first-round pick.
The Wolverines took a blow when senior safety Rod Moore suffered a torn ACL, especially with Keon Sabb heading to Alabama, so the safety position is in flux.
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Schedule breakdown
While Michigan was the best team in the country last fall, the Wolverines undoubtedly benefited from a schedule that didn’t test their mettle. The schedule in 2024 will provide a much bigger challenge.
Michigan is priced as a 21-point favorite in Week 1 against Fresno State, but a Week 2 matchup against a loaded Texas team provides a massive early test. Later in the season, the Wolverines host Oregon.
Of course, Michigan’s biggest game will be against Ohio State. The Buckeyes are favored by 9.5 points in the look-ahead markets. Outside of that trip to Columbus, the Wolverines don’t play any road games against expected CFP contenders.
Final verdict
While Harbaugh has left for the NFL, much of the culture remains in place. The schedule is filled with teams the Wolverines should beat, including eight games at the Big House.
Michigan’s season will depend on how it fares in those three games against Texas, Oregon and Ohio State. Facing three of the top four teams in national championship odds in one campaign is undoubtedly a change of pace from recent years.
Even if Michigan loses all three difficult matchups, it should have every opportunity to collect nine wins. Those games also provide excellent opportunities to hedge down the line.
The Wolverines might not be set up to defend their national championship, but they are built to win 9-plus games and push for a CFP berth this fall.
Best bet: Michigan Over 8.5 wins (-162, FanDuel).
