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Do you have a sensation that even the best teams in the majors this year are not as good as usual? That they go into the kind of sustained tailspins not befitting what you think of as elite squads?
There were five teams that concluded the weekend jammed at either 70-49 (Yankees and Orioles) or 69-49 (Dodgers, Guardians, Phillies), leaving them all on a 95-win trajectory. That can obviously change in the coming weeks. But if those trends were to persist, we are looking at the first season without a team playing .600 or better since 2013.
Maybe it is an aberration, since a combined nine teams played .600 or better the past two years.
Or are we seeing something shift? I have asked folks in the game I respect, and none were sure we are going through a sea change. A couple threw out the possibility that the alteration in playoff format the past two years — in which six teams make the playoffs in each league — might have an impact.
The theory is that more slots lead to more teams trying to win and, thus, fewer and fewer out-and-out soft touches on the schedule. That the sixth seed in the NL — the 2023 Phillies and the 2024 Diamondbacks — made a run to the World Series in each of the past two seasons only has encouraged more teams to try to figure out how to get into the tournament by both upgrading in the offseason and — at minimum — not surrendering at the deadline.
Yes, there are three teams on 100-loss arcs in the Marlins, Rockies and White Sox, who are on pace to outdo the 1962 Mets’ modern-record 120-loss campaign. But, conversely, there were 25 teams playing .450 ball or better at the close of the weekend. If that continues, it would be a first.
You need soft touches to bulk up records. The Royals and Twins were in playoff position, in large part, thanks to each going 12-1 this year against the White Sox. And that emphasizes another change of the recent past to a balanced schedule in which opponents now play 13 games against each team within their division rather than 19.
Consider how tough the AL East can annually be. But in 2018, when the Orioles lost 115 games, the Red Sox went 16-3 against Baltimore to win 108 games and the division. In 2019, the Orioles lost 108 games; the Yankees went 17-2 against Baltimore to win 103 games and the division. In 2021, the Orioles lost 110 games as the Rays went 18-1 vs. Baltimore to win 100 games and the division.
All of the above might be contributors to what we are experiencing this season. But I have something else that could be a factor — or the factor in the inability of the best teams to sustain excellence. It revolves around pitching, notably starters. Again, this might be a one-year blip. I just wonder if a bunch of trends are coming together that are going to be with us for a while.
We have an abundance of pitching injuries and pitchers being lost for long periods after surgery. Pitchers being transitioned from relief to starting with minimal history of enduring a full season. A current philosophy of grip-it-and-rip-it that promotes injury and negates endurance.
The confluence leads to more pitchers who simply are unavailable and/or run out of gas because they are sprinters not trained for the marathon and/or are forcing even the best teams into using so many pitchers daily and for the entire season that even they can’t find enough qualified ones to do this consistently well.
The shorter starters go because they are not trained to go longer or won’t be allowed to face a lineup a third time or because clubs are so anxious to get to their merry-go-round of relievers simply increases the sheer volume of pitchers needed to pitch well — even as so many are breaking. Without such constant pitching staff turnover, how can even the best teams hope for a metronomic steadiness through a 162-game schedule?
Through the weekend, there already had been 328 different starters this year, which would be the sixth most all-time if the season ended today, trailing only years since 2018. Yes, there are openers now on occasion. But mainly this means an average of 10 starters per team. There had been 770 pitchers used in all, also sixth-most (the only seasons with more have been since 2018). Yes, that includes the stray position player in a blowout, but it mainly means an average of 25 per team. Do teams really have 10 qualified starters? Or 25 qualified pitchers?
Only 16 teams dating to 2009 that have won 95 or more games or were on a 95-win pace this year had endured a 30-game stretch of playing .400 ball or worse — and three are from this year: the Yankees, Phillies and Orioles (thanks to the great research of Nate Purinton of MLB Network). The 2024 Yankees were one of two that played .300 ball (9-21) in any 30-game stretch. The other, the 2017 Dodgers, were up by 21 games in the NL West in late August when they began their downturn and still coasted to 104 wins.
These Yankees are the team that made me think about a theory because they were so clearly one team through June 14 (MLB-best 50-22) and then another for the next 33 games (10-23; only the White Sox were worse). No single item defined a six-week period in which the Yankees were atrocious, but the before and after of their starting pitching, to me, is the clearest.
I believe the Yankees got through June 14 with their starters pushing to cover more in the absence of Gerrit Cole. When it was announced that their ace was returning at that point on June 19 from his elbow injury, it was as if the collective group exhaled as if the job were done.
Through June 14, the Yankees’ Cole-less rotation led the majors in ERA (2.77), batting average against (.208) and were second in innings at 409. In those next 33 games, the Yankees rotation, even with a recovering Cole, were 30th (last) in ERA at 6.05 and were 27th in batting average against (.279) and innings (163.2). Their homer rate more than doubled from 1.01 per nine innings to an MLB-worst 2.03. The lack of innings over-exposed and over-taxed perhaps the Yankees’ worst bullpen of the past decade. This is the cascade when starting pitching collapses — it impacts the ecosystem of the entire team.
A strength of the Yankees rotation has been its comparative overall durability. Cole missed two-plus months and Clarke Schmidt went down in late May. But Nestor Cortes, Carlos Rodon and Marcus Stroman — despite a downturn in performance in the worst stretch — have stayed in turn. The Yankees have used just eight starters this year, tied with the Padres and Twins for the second-fewest. They have consistently felt like one more starting pitching injury away from peril.
The fewest starters used this year belongs to the Mariners, who have been unicorns with comparatively great health and performance combined; over the weekend in Seattle, the Mets experienced just how overwhelming the Mariners rotation can be.
Again, I want to acknowledge this might be a one-year thing or that I am experiencing recency bias. This kind of stuff might happen to good teams all the time and perhaps we are just hyper-aware of everything today.
But it does feel more extreme. Good teams aren’t experiencing just a week or two lull, but something more extended and dramatic.
That made me look deeper at the Dodgers, Orioles and Phillies — the other expected behemoths who have not fully roared:
Dodgers: The signings of Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto and the trade and signing of Tyler Glasnow were supposed to turn the Dodgers into a superteam. But from the outset, the club was dealing with a wide array of pitching injuries, and it only got worse as the season went along. Always looking toward October, the Dodgers were protective not to overdo it with arms. But no team had used more starters, at 17 (tied with the Brewers), or pitchers, at 36 (tied with the Brewers and Mets). What level of consistency and traction can be gained by cycling through this many arms?
And, look, there is going to be some cherry-picking here, but through June 26, the Dodgers were 51-31, the NL’s second best record. In that time, their starting pitching ERA was fifth at 3.42. In the next 33 games, Los Angeles used 11 different starters and had the majors’ fifth-worst rotation ERA at 5.41 and went 15-18 to go from dominating the NL West to now having to hold off the Diamondbacks and Padres.
Phillies: Through July 13, Philadelphia was an MLB-best 62-33 and its rotation was brilliant (MLB-best 3.23 ERA) and durable (averaging an MLB-best nearly six innings a start). Zack Wheeler, Ranger Suarez and Cristopher Sanchez were second, fifth and sixth in NL ERA, respectively, and those three, plus Aaron Nola, each had gone more than 100 innings already — Nola leading the team at 119 ⅔.
But Suarez hurt his back and hasn’t started since July 22, Sanchez has hit a wall as he pushed beyond his highest major league innings total and Nola has faltered. Only Wheeler — the rare pitcher in this era to show durability and excellence — has remained strong as the rotation ERA ballooned to 4.59 in the past 23 games. The bullpen has been asked to do more, and in the 23 games, was 1-7 with an MLB-worst 7.04 ERA. The offense has struggled simultaneously, and the Phillies had gone 7-16 in those most recent 23 games — only the 1-21 White Sox were worse in that span.
Orioles: The only reason the Yankees did not fall from the AL East race is that the Orioles were faltering in much of the same period. Through July 7, Baltimore was 57-33 — the AL’s second-best record. The Orioles rotation had the second-best ERA in the majors (3.43) and sixth-most innings (496).
But Kyle Bradish, notably, and also John Means and Tyler Wells combined for 15 starts before all three needed season-ending elbow surgeries. Grayson Rodriguez went on the IL with a lat injury. And Dean Kremer went from a 3.93 ERA in his first 10 starts to a 6.14 in his past six. The overall rotation ERA rose to 4.85 in the past 29 games, during which the Orioles went 13-16 and fell from a three-game lead on the Yankees into a tie. And that was with Zach Eflin going 3-0 with a 2.33 ERA after being obtained from the Rays.
Again, it all can be recency bias or a search for a reason for something that has many. But these good teams have had long stretches of bad play at about the same time and all have seen their rotations floundering due to injury and/or fatigue.
The other side
The converse of the starting pitching drain might be happening for the Diamondbacks, who have been the majors’ best team for a month and in the last turn through the rotation had Eduardo Rodriguez and Merrill Kelly return after long absences.
Rodriguez had not pitched all season due to a lat injury before helping Arizona complete a three-game sweep of the AL Central-leading Guardians last Wednesday, allowing three runs in 5 ⅔ innings. Kelly had not pitched since April 15 due to a shoulder strain. On Sunday he allowed two runs in five innings to help the Diamondbacks take three of four from the NL East-leading Phillies.
That gave the Diamondbacks 21 wins in their last 27 games just as the rotation they envisioned upon signing both Rodriguez and Jordan Montgomery in the offseason is coming together in full. It potentially gives the defending NL champions two fresh arms for the stretch and an interesting conundrum.
Zac Gallen and Kelly were the 1-2 that helped Arizona win the pennant last year and are embedded. Rodriguez was signed for four years at $80 million. Montgomery received one year at $25 million with a vesting 2025 option (more on that in a bit).
But in an MLB-best 27-10 surge that took them from 39-43 to an NL wild-card-leading 66-53, the Diamondbacks’ two best starters have been Brandon Pfaadt (2.66 ERA) and Ryne Nelson (3.02). Meanwhile, Montgomery’s 6.37 ERA is the third-worst for any pitcher with at least 80 innings.
Could Montgomery eventually lose his job? He has a résumé that includes helping pitch the Rangers to win the World Series last year. And his contract, which he signed during spring training after not getting the big free-agent deal he was seeking, creates a devilish situation. Montgomery is due to start Wednesday against the Rockies. That would be his 18th start, which would kick his vesting option from $20 million to $22.5 million. The last and final level would come with 23 starts, triggering a $25 million 2025 salary for Montgomery if he wanted it. So removing him from the rotation would potentially create an angry veteran.
In a text exchange, Arizona GM Mike Hazen said that in the short run the team could use a six-man rotation until Rodriguez and Kelly exhibit they are definitively back in full, but that it won’t last long. Diamondbacks manager Torey Lovullo told reporters in Arizona on Monday that Nelson would be available out of the pen on Wednesday, but if not used, would make his normal start on Friday as part of a once-around for a six-man rotation.
When asked if veteran status or contractual stipulations would impact who got to stay in the rotation, Hazen responded, “We’re going to make the best decisions to win every night.”
That would suggest Montgomery might be pitching for his rotation spot, though the less controversial move would be to put Nelson in the pen.
Awards watch
There has been a near universal knee-jerk thought that the NL Rookie of the Year award should just be handed to Paul Skenes. And why not? Since being promoted by the Pirates on May 11, the righty has been dynamic. He led the majors in ERA at 2.25 among the 72 pitchers with at least 80 innings since his promotion, was second in strikeout percentage at 32.3 percent and ninth in batting average against at .205. He was enough of a phenomenon that he started the All-Star Game after just 11 major league outings.
If he is viewed as the frontrunner, fine. The Cubs’ Shota Imanaga, another All-Star, also has to be considered, along with Cardinals shortstop Masyn Winn, burgeoning Brewers outfielder Jackson Chourio and perhaps even the fast-charging Giants’ Tyler Fitzgerald, who since July 9 was third in the NL with 11 homers and second with a 1.223 OPS.
But I think Jackson Merrill should be no less than a co-frontrunner with Skenes through three-quarters of the season. As opposed to Skenes with the Pirates, Merrill has been with the Padres from the outset of the season.
I know narrative is supposed to be limited or not used at all for this award — simply who is the best rookie.
Yet, it would be foolhardy not to note that Merrill, a shortstop who had played five games in the outfield in the minors, solved a huge issue for the Padres by being able to play center field — and has been good at it. And in a year in which pitching has been generally overwhelming — with the MLB batting average, for example, at .244 — a rookie position player who has thrived really stands out.
Merrill, too, was an All-Star and he has been getting even better since then. His overall stats: .291 average, 17 homers, 13 steals in 15 tries and a 124 OPS-plus (which would be the best by a Padres rookie in a 162-game season since the 127 of Nate Colbert in the team’s inaugural 1969 campaign) are impressive.
Merrill was named NL Player of the Week, in part because he hit a game-tying homer in MIami in the ninth inning on Friday and a two-run shot Saturday. It gave him five game-tying or go-ahead homers in the eighth inning or later this season, tying him with Mel Ott (1929) for the second-most by a player 21 or younger behind the six Frank Robinson hit in 1956. Ott and Robinson are Hall of Famers.
Merrill has really risen lately to help the Padres’ playoff surge. But he is the rare rookie this season who did not get overwhelmed early.
In my Post Plus column on April 16, I made note of the trio of top prospect Jacksons — also Holliday and Chourio, who were the consensus top two prospects in the sport — attempting to break through, and with a hat tip to The Post’s associate sports editor, Mark Hale, I dubbed them the “The Jackson Thrive.”
But after being promoted April 10, Holliday did so poorly in 10 games — going 2-for-34 (.059) without an extra-base hit and with 18 strikeouts — that he was demoted to the minors. Chourio in his first 52 games and 176 plate appearances hit .207 with a .575 OPS and nine extra-base hits (five homers).
Holliday was promoted again on July 31 and in his first 11 games in his second life had five homers. Chourio since June 2 had 209 plate appearances and was hitting .321 with an .887 OPS with 20 extra-base hits (nine homers).
My MLB Network colleague, Dan O’Dowd — a long-time front-office executive — often says the most important element needed in the game is in the shortest supply: patience. That is probably true for young hitters in this era.
Consider another well-regarded prospect, Detroit’s Colt Keith, who in his first 30 games this year and 110 plate appearances hit .152 with a .399 OPS and zero homers. In his next 78 games and 296 plate appearances, he blossomed to .278/.795 and 11 homers.
Or consider that since the All-Star break, based on Fangraphs’ Wins Above Replacement, there are five rookies in the top 19: Fitzgerald, Baltimore’s Colton Cowser, Merrill, the Yankees’ Austin Wells and Chourio. Plus, fellow rookies James Woods of the Nationals has an .887 OPS while Boston’s Ceddanne Rafaela was hitting .333 with a .798 OPS.
So when the previously disappointing former touted Cardinals prospect Jordan Walker gets promoted again on Monday, keep an open mind. Maybe he was overrated. Or maybe he just needed more time to adapt to major league pitching.
Free agent watch
There is a unique potential free agent who is a recent champion and in his prime and could end up being much desired in the marketplace.
That is Chris Young, the GM of the defending champion Rangers. His contract is expiring after this season. At Yankee Stadium over the weekend, Young did not want to comment on his status. But he has a lot of friends in the game who alerted me of his walk year and dissatisfaction that he has remained unsigned even after his work to help bring the Rangers their first-ever title.
Through a team spokesman, Rangers owner Ray Davis said he preferred not to comment except to express that, “The process to have Chris Young continue to lead baseball operations for the Texas Rangers for years to come is ongoing and we will continue to work towards coming to an agreement.”
The best bet would be that the sides find a way back to each other for a variety of reasons, including that the Rangers are Young’s hometown team and it is unlikely Davis would have a large contingent of obvious replacement candidates.
But if he got into the market, Young would become arguably the most desirable candidate available for his varied experiences, from being a Princeton baseball/basketball player to a 13-year major league pitcher to serving as a key lieutenant in the Commissioner’s Office to his four years as the Rangers GM. Young fits what seems to be becoming an appealing combination: someone bright enough to handle all the data associated with the job, but with the feel for players and playing as a former pro.
It is possible that no top baseball official job will open this offseason as well. As poorly as the White Sox have done, Chris Getz is just finishing his first year, as is Miami’s Peter Bendix. It seems unlikely either would be bounced. The disappointing Blue Jays appear ready to stick with GM Ross Atkins. If the Padres make the playoffs, A.J. Preller becomes more bulletproof. And there are no signs that Hal Steinbrenner is ready to move on from Brian Cashman even if the Yankees crash — though I have always thought one hesitancy for Steinbrenner is that he did not believe there was a candidate out there he would feel comfortable could succeed Cashman
Young, 45, would check a lot of boxes for many organizations. He also remains someone who could potentially return to baseball’s central office, and it is not out of the question he could get on a short list to ultimately be Commissioner Rob Manfred’s successor, though that is a field that has not publicly been formed yet.
In his early days of ownership, Steve Cohen tried to recruit Young to run the Mets baseball operations. But at that time, to leave a job he liked at the Commissioner’s Office, Young pretty much had only one locale that would work, He grew up in suburban Dallas a Rangers fan and joined the organization in Dec. 2020. When President of Baseball Operations Jon Daniels was fired in Aug. 2022, Young became the Rangers lead baseball executive. In both capacities, he had a substantial hand in forging the organization’s first championship.
Yet, in the aftermath, despite the title and entering his lame-duck season, Young never reached agreement on an extension. Friends of Young told me that the bankruptcy of the company that regionally televised Rangers games and the uncertainty of the cash influx from that area led to Davis restricting what he was willing to spend on both payroll — prior to the season and at the trade deadline — and on an extension for Young. All of that, the friends say, has left Young miffed.
Perhaps the lure of staying home and a roster that can rebound from what so far has been a hangover season will motivate Young to find a way to stay. But if he is willing to move, Young might not be Juan Soto or Corbin Burnes. But he would be an intriguing free agent.
Last licks
• Any chance you noticed how the American League is dominating the race for the major league batting championship? To close the weekend, the top five batting averages belonged to AL players: Bobby Witt Jr., Aaron Judge, Steven Kwan, Vlad Guerrero Jr. and Yordan Alvarez.
Luis Arraez, who won an AL batting title for the Twins in 2022 and an NL batting title for the Marlins in 2023, was sixth overall and the NL leader this year while playing for the Marlins and then the Padres. He was followed by two more AL players, Jose Altuve and Juan Soto, another NL player in Marcel Ozuna and then two more AL players in Rafael Devers and Yainer Diaz.
That makes nine of the top 11 from the AL. Fittingly, the NL has a chance to set records for lowest average to win a batting title.
While the Royals’ Witt Jr. was leading the AL at .347, followed by Judge at a so far career-best .328 — as he tries to win a Triple Crown since he leads the majors in homers and RBIs — Arraez was leading the NL at just .306 while Atlanta’s Ozuna at .301 was the only other National Leaguer over .300.
The lowest batting average to ever win the NL title was Tony Gwynn’s .313 in 1988. The lowest to win any batting title was Carl Yastrzemski’s .301 for the AL crown in 1968, when second place went to Oakland’s Danny Cater at .290.
Fittingly, that was “The Year of the Pitcher,” when the collective MLB batting average was .237, leading to a rule change to lower the mound. For most of this season, the league batting average was the lowest since. But from July 1 on, MLB-wide batting average was .250 to raise the overall mark to .244, which has eked ahead of the .243 collective in 2022.
• Marcus Stroman is inching toward having control of his 2026 $18 million option. It becomes a player option if he reaches 140 innings this year, and with five innings on Sunday he reached 121 ⅓ innings.
• It is easy in New York to focus on Judge getting the Barry Bonds treatment, but Houston’s Alvarez is actually tied with Judge for the MLB lead in intentional walks at 13. Trent Grisham has the Yankees’ only other intentional walk this season.
Nineteen teams have 13 or fewer intentional walks issued to their hitters. Life without Shohei Ohtani and mostly without Mike Trout is hell for the Angels, who have three intentional walks all year.
