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Falcons general manager Terry Fontenot raised a lot of eyebrows when he selected Michael Penix Jr. with the eighth pick in the draft last spring. It looked to be a strange choice, considering Atlanta had signed free agent Kirk Cousins to a four-year, $180 million contract just a few weeks earlier.
Sunday, we’ll start to learn if there was a method to the madness as the Falcons, still in contention for the NFC South title at 7-7, replace the ineffective Cousins with Penix for their home game against the Giants.
Cousins, 36, gave it a good go on a repaired Achilles tendon, but he has become slow and indecisive. He’s probably the main reason the Falcons have lost four of their past five games, as he’s thrown one touchdown pass, nine interceptions and been sacked 11 times in that span.
Nobody really knows whether Penix is going to be great or terrible. More likely he’ll be somewhere in between. I’m willing to lay the 8.5 points against the long-gone Giants to find out.
Though Penix has thrown just five passes in the NFL, he launched 1,685 of them for 13,741 yards over six college seasons at Indiana and Washington. He knows what he’s doing, and should be able to unlock Atlanta’s offensive weapons — Bijan Robinson, Drake London, Kyle Pitts and Tyler Allgeier — better than Cousins did.
The pick: Falcons -8.5.
Los Angeles Rams (-3.5) over NEW YORK JETS
My first inclination was to ride with Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams in the week after their first breakout performances as Jets. After all, it will be a very Lambeau-like 24 degrees on Sunday at MetLife, and the Rams have been practicing in temperatures in the 70s and 80s.
Throw in that the Jets’ other top players endured the chills in such places as Ames, Iowa, Madison, Wisc. and Columbus, Ohio, and you start to get the idea they might thrive.
But on the other side of the argument, the Rams are in first place in the NFC West and are desperately trying to hold on to that spot — or any playoff berth. They have a QB-coach tandem in Matthew Stafford and Sean McVay that has won a Super Bowl together. And they have a rugged running attack combined with a short, precision passing game that shouldn’t be too affected by the conditions.
Saturday
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (-3.5) over Houston Texans
Have to admit I was more interested in taking the Chiefs as +3 home underdogs when it looked as if Carson Wentz would replace Patrick Mahomes. But with Mahomes’ ankle checking out, we’re back to that familiar position of hoping Kansas City does enough to cover. This time I think they will, as the number’s a little lighter than usual and defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo will get after a pedestrian Houston offense that has an issue with Joe Mixon’s availability.
BALTIMORE RAVENS (-6) over Steelers
This spread might look awfully large for this AFC North matchup and it’s always tempting to side with Mike Tomlin as an underdog, where he’s still covering at 65.5 percent even after last week’s 27-13 loss in Philadelphia. However, injuries are starting to chisel away at the Steelers. Without George Pickens, the offense has disappeared, averaging just 215 yards per game in the past two weeks. T.J. Watt has a bad ankle but he does not have an injury designation for this game.
Sunday
Detroit Lions (-6.5) over CHICAGO BEARS
Not worrying too much about some chilly, rainy Chicago weather, the absence of David Montgomery or the collection of injuries to Detroit’s defense. The Lions are fighting it out with the Eagles and Vikings at 12-2 in the NFC, and they have more than enough firepower to distance themselves from a Bears team that’s averaged 14.75 ppg in its eight-game skid.
CINCINNATI BENGALS (-7.5) over Cleveland Browns
In their past six games, the Bengals have averaged 34 ppg. They are just 3-3 in that span but now go home to face Dorian Thompson-Robinson as the Browns’ third attempt as a starting quarterback. Just have to hope Myles Garrett doesn’t get a clean shot at banged-up Joe Burrow.
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (-3.5) over Tennessee Titans
Tennessee, an NFL-worst 2-12 ATS, switches from Will Levis to Mason Rudolph. Though that might be an upgrade, the Titans have injury concerns with Tony Pollard, Tyler Boyd and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine. Feels like a reasonable number to back Shane Steichen, who’s 8-4 ATS as a favorite with the Colts.
WASHINGTON COMMANDERS (+3.5) over Philadelphia Eagles
The Commanders had a 10-3 lead in the third quarter at Philly on Nov. 14 before Saquon Barkley went bonkers and the Eagles prevailed, 26-18. Don’t mind backing Jayden Daniels and the home ’dog in a revenge divisional spot.
Arizona Cardinals (-4.5) over CAROLINA PANTHERS
Carolina was on a nice run of five underdog covers in a row but got dragged as a favorite by Dallas last week, allowing 149 rushing yards to Rico Dowdle and three touchdown passes by Cooper Rush. Looking for James Conner and Kyler Murray to pick up where the Cowboys left off.
Minnesota Vikings (-3) over SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
Seattle had won four in a row before getting dismantled at home by the Packers, 30-13, on Sunday night. Geno Smith, who left with a knee injury, will play but could be hampered. Running backs Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet have been dealing with injuries, with Walker missing the last two games and Charbonnet suffering an oblique injury. Tough spot against a Brian Flores defense and Justin Jefferson offense.
BUFFALO BILLS (-14) over New England Patriots
After covering with the Ravens at -16.5 last week, I feel a little more emboldened to lay a big number like this. The forecast for Orchard Park is 17 degrees with a chance of snow. Josh Allen and the Bills laugh at those conditions. I figure it’s the last place a 3-11 opponent would like to spend three hours.
San Francisco 49ers (+1) over MIAMI DOLPHINS
Miami’s midweek injury list contained Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle and Terron Armstead, with Waddle being listed as doubtful to play. The Niners have had similar concerns all season, but I’m counting on Brock Purdy, Deebo Samuel & Co. to be heard from again before it’s all over.
Jacksonville Jaguars (+1) over LAS VEGAS RAIDERS
The Jaguars look to be a team that’s still competing and is somewhat competent offensively, led by WR Brian Thomas Jr. They should jump at this chance for a rare win against the Raiders, who pretty much are already stocking the draft war room with food and beverages.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-4) over DALLAS COWBOYS
Two things struck me about the Bucs’ win over the Chargers last week. One, Baker Mayfield really knows how to use Mike Evans and Bucky Irving. And two, they hit harder than any defense I’ve seen this season. I don’t believe the Cowboys are going to be up for three hours of physical punishment.
Betting on the NFL?
Monday
New Orleans Saints (+14.5) over GREEN BAY PACKERS
Saints have covered three of their past five spreads and haven’t lost by more than a touchdown since a string of four double-digit losses from Weeks 5-8. I don’t see them as a bottom-of-the-barrel team in the Giants-Titans-Raiders class. And though the Packers need the game, there’s no real urgency to beat the Saints by this much.
BEST BETS: Jaguars, Falcons, Cardinals.
LOCK OF THE WEEK: Jaguars (Locks 8-7 in 2024).
LAST WEEK: 8-8 overall, 1-2 Best Bets.
THURSDAY: Broncos (L).
