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After the state election for Brandenburg concluded this weekend, both the Social Democrats and far-right Alternative for Germany emerged as biggest winners. The liberal Free Democratic Party, part of Germany’s ruling coalition, was left fighting for existence. What comes next?
ADVERTISEMENTAs the dust begins to settle in the former East German state of Brandenburg, a few things are becoming clear. Firstly, voter turnout at 73% was the highest in this state since German reunification 30 years ago. Secondly, both the liberal Free Democratic Party (FDP) and the Green party are facing uncertainty about the future of their role in the country’s governing coalition — with both failing to convince voters above the 5% threshold needed to gain a seat in the state’s Parliament. Finally, although these results were a victory for German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s struggling Social Democrats (SPD), the far-right party Alternative for Germany (AfD) has won a second blocking minority alongside the East German state of Thuringia earlier this month.Its gains, which are so far unprecedented for the party, mean it now has the power to elect constitutional judges in these states.What do these results mean for Germany?Political scientist at the University of Potsdam, Dr Jan Philipp Thomeczek, told Euronews that Scholz can now “breathe a sigh of relief” after the SPD emerged as the the strongest party in Brandenburg’s elections, unlike in Thuringia and Saxony earlier this month.SPD’s Minister President for Brandenburg Dietmar Woidke, who has been leading the state for 13 years, threatened to resign if the AfD beat his party — upping the stakes in the election for the northeastern state that borders the German capital of Berlin. “The SPD has shown that it can still win elections,” Dr Thomeczek says, adding that despite the close results between SPD and AfD, he doesn’t believe there would be a new federal election before the planned vote in Autumn next year. “It doesn’t make sense. If they started that, the federal elections might just be held four months earlier,” he says.However, after the FDP managed just 0.8% of the vote this weekend, there is the possibility that the German Parliament could seek different majorities to form an alternative coalition. This possibility is tampered by the fact the likelihood of the opposition party, the Christian Democratic Union’s, leader Friedrich Merz joining forces with Scholz in a coalition remains low. “The FDP is just trying to stay in the conversation—they weren’t even discussed yesterday. They got so few votes in Brandenburg that they’re afraid of disappearing from the media and becoming irrelevant,” Dr Thomeczek explains.SPD faces challenges aheadWhilst the SPD did well this election, the party remains in “a difficult situation,” Dr Thomeczek says.”Olaf Scholz said he wants to run again and be re-elected, but he’s currently very far from that. So, the situation is tough.”As results trickle in, talks about potential coalition governments for the state of Brandenburg are starting to take shape. ADVERTISEMENT”Brandenburg needs a government, and there’s really only one option: the SPD and BSW (Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance) working together.”Coalition talks in the states of Thuringia and Saxony have already stalled, after the leader of the BSW, Sahra Wagenknecht, began placing foreign policy demands concerning weapons in Ukraine on the table.”But, on the state level, foreign policy isn’t really relevant. It’s mostly symbolic politics. They can try to put pressure on the federal government, but foreign policy decisions aren’t made at the state level,” Dr Thomeczek says.The question still remains if the BSW — whose political positioning includes ending military aid to Ukraine and further restrictions on migration — can form a productive coalition with other parties. ADVERTISEMENTExperts have pointed out that the party, formed in 2023 by several former members of Die Linke, is new and many of its members inexperienced. “If they can’t, there will be new elections and another campaign with different results. But I believe only the AfD would benefit from that,” Dr Thomeczek adds.Whilst the SPD were celebrating their win yesterday and are likely to continue to govern, potentially also in Thuringia and Saxony, the election results were disastrous for the two remaining coalition partners. The democratic socialist Die Linke party equally fared badly, earning 3.0% of the vote. “For the Greens and FDP, this is tough. They’ve been kicked out of the state parliaments. It was a close call for the Greens, but for the FDP, it wasn’t. They’re fighting for their political survival now,” Dr Thomeczek says.ADVERTISEMENTAlthough the AfD were celebrating the results at all three state elections, all other parties have firmly ruled out forming a coalition with them.For now, there is a long road ahead for the established parties and coalition government before the federal elections scheduled for the end of next year.
