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Week 1 of the NFL season is in the books, and we’re starting to learn more about the league’s landscape in 2024.
Each week in this column, I’ll analyze a futures bet I’m taking before the coming week’s games.
This week it’s the Seahawks, who I like better than Ryan Dunleavy does. My Post colleague still has Seattle ranked 21st in his Week 2 Power Rankings.
Week 2 NFL futures best bets
Before the season, I wrote about the teams I’m buying and selling to make the playoffs. The Seahawks were my biggest buy at nearly 2-1 odds, and that number is long gone after an opening-week win.
However, I still see value in plus-money odds, and my confidence is rising in this team despite a sloppy Week 1 showing at home against the Broncos.
Trailing at halftime, the Seahawks needed some time to get rolling on both sides of the ball. It’s not shocking, given the team’s new coaching staff elected to play starters sparingly in the preseason.
The ball got rolling in the second half, though, and I was incredibly impressed with first-year head coach Mike Macdonald’s defense.
Yes, Seattle was facing a rookie quarterback (Bo Nix) making his first start on the road. However, the Seahawks have tons of young defensive talent that flashed in Week 1.
Devon Witherspoon and Tariq Woolen could be the league’s best young cornerback duo. Julian Love was PFF’s highest-graded safety in Week 1, and rookie Byron Murphy II is a problem for opponents on the defensive line. Boye Mafe is also poised for a breakout season, logging nine pressures against Denver.
My biggest concern for the Seahawks is their offensive line, which ranked 29th in pass-block win rate in Week 1. Charles Cross continues to ascend as a franchise left tackle, but the rest of the group leaves much to be desired.
Eventually, getting Abraham Lucas back will help, and offensive line coach Scott Huff led a Washington line last year that was a finalist for the Joe Moore Award.
Huff worked under Ryan Grubb at Washington. Grubb’s offense utilized motion at a 78.9 percent rate in Week 1, up from 53.2 percent in 2023 and the highest rate in a game with Geno Smith since he became the starter in 2021.
The diversification of the rushing attack paid dividends, with running back Kenneth Walker III taking over the game in the second half.
I also loved Macdonald’s aggressiveness in the game, going for a two-point conversion in the second quarter and instructing Grubb to go for the kill on offense late despite holding just a six-point lead.
Seattle is an analytics-driven organization, and risk calculation makes a massive difference throughout a season compared to other coaches, including the Raiders’ Antonio Pierce, whose conservative play-calling and decision-making hurt their teams.
The competition in the NFC took a hit this week.
In the NFC West, the Rams lost star receiver Puka Nacua for at least a few games and are dealing with a cluster of injuries in the secondary and along the offensive line.
Elsewhere, Green Bay lost Jordan Love for the foreseeable future, Atlanta’s Kirk Cousins had a rocky debut in Week 1 and Tampa Bay is dealing with significant injury woes. Seattle’s path to at least a wild-card spot is increasing.
Betting on the NFL?
After Week 1, FTN gives the Seahawks a 63.6 percent chance to make the playoffs, and the current +110 odds offer an implied probability of 47.6 percent, showing clear value on the current number.
The Seahawks are also priced at +500 to win the NFC West (16.7 percent implied probability), with FTN giving them a 26.2 percent chance at the division crown.
I recommend a full-unit bet on the Seahawks to make the playoffs at +110 and a quarter-unit bet on them to win the division at +500 odds.
NFL futures best bets
Seahawks to make playoffs (+110, DraftKings)
Seahawks to win NFC West (+500, FanDuel)
