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Steve Serby previews the AFC East as The Post gives division-by-division breakdowns ahead of the 2024 NFL season.
1. Jets
Coach: Robert Saleh
2023 record: 7-10 | O/U wins: 10.5
Key additions: LT Tyron Smith, RT Morgan Moses, LG John Simpson; DE Haason Reddick, DT Javon Kinlaw, DT Leki Fotu, WR Mike Williams, QB Tyrod Taylor, OT Olu Fashanu, WR Malachi Corley, RB Braelon Allen, RB Isaiah Davis
Key departures: DE Bryce Huff, DT Quinton Jefferson, TE C.J. Uzomah, OT Duane Brown, OT Billy Turner, G Laken Tomlinson, C Connor McGovern, DE Carl Lawson, S Jordan Whitehead
First-and-goal: Aaron Rodgers! Aaron Rodgers! Aaron Rodgers! WR Garrett Wilson and RB Breece Hall are third-year stars. Smith is an eight-time Pro Bowler on a fortified O-line. DC Jeff Ulbrich fields an elite defense with studs at each level — DT Quinnen Williams, ILB C.J. Mosley and CBs Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed. Third-year DE Jermaine Johnson could be a double-digit sacker and second-year DE Will McDonald has a hellacious spin move. WR Xavier Gipson is a dangerous returner. Brant Boyer’s kicking game is solid with P Thomas Morstead and K Greg Zuerlein. Taylor is an elite backup QB.
Fourth-and-long: Rodgers will be 41 in December. Can his Achilles hold up? Can OC Nathaniel Hackett rebound? Can Mike Williams stay on the field? Can Saleh dodge the firing squad?
Prediction: 11-6. The 13-year playoff drought comes to an end. The Jets capture their first division title since 2002. Rodgers plays 14 games and Taylor wins two in his place. Hall totals 1,600 combined yards, Wilson snares 10 TD passes and the defense keeps them in every game.
2. Bills
Coach: Sean McDermott
2023 record: 11-6 | O/U wins: 9.5
Key additions: WR Keon Coleman, WR Curtis Samuel, RB Ray Davis, QB Mitchell Trubisky, S Mike Edwards, DT Austin Johnson, LB Nicholas Morrow
Key departures: WR Stefon Diggs, WR Gabe Davis, S Jordan Poyer; S Micah Hyde, CB Tre’Davious White, C Mitch Morse, EDGE Leonard Floyd, DT Linval Joseph, DT Poona Ford, DT Tim Settle
First-and-goal: Josh Allen is the elite, dual-threat franchise QB. TE Dalton Kincaid is his young Travis Kelce. OC Joe Brady will use Samuel as a jack-of-all trades. Coleman is a red-zone threat. Peter Schrager of “Good Morning Football” lists WR Khalil Shakir as a breakout candidate. RB James Cook was a Pro Bowler in his second season. LT Dion Dawkins anchors a solid O-line. CBs Rasul Douglas and Christian Benford are more than competent. DEs Greg Rousseau and A.J. Epenesa bring the heat.
Fourth-and-long: Diggs wore out his welcome and will have to be replaced. Morse left for Jacksonville and will be replaced at center by Connor McGovern. The secondary will miss the experience of Poyer, Hyde and White. Can Dorian Williams step up to partly fill the shoes of LB Matt Milano (torn bicep)? Can 35-year-old Von Miller stay healthy and remember how to sack the quarterback? Can first-time DC Bobby Babich step up? Can PK Tyler Bass forget the Scott Norwood comparisons following his 48-yard playoff Wide Right?
Prediction: 9-8. Their four-year stranglehold on the division crown ends. Allen is in the MVP conversation, but the defense takes a step back.
3. Dolphins
Coach: Mike McDaniel
2023 record: 11-6 | O/U wins: 9.5
Key additions: TE Jonnu Smith, C Aaron Brewer, DT Calais Campbell, DT Benito Jones, LB Jordyn Brooks, LB Anthony Walker, CB Kendall Fuller, CB Siran Neal, S Jordan Poyer, DE Chop Robinson, OT Patrick Paul, RB Jaylen Wright, DE/OLB Mo Kamara
Key departures: WR Cedrick Wilson, G Robert Hunt, C Connor Williams, DE Andrew Van Ginkel, DT Christian Wilkins, DT Raekwon Davis, LB Jerome Baker, CB Xavien Howard, S Brandon Jones
First-and-goal: Tua Tagovailoa ($167.1M guaranteed) likes McDaniel a lot better than he liked former HC Brian Flores. McDaniel is an offensive and news conference whiz. And Tua certainly likes throwing to electric WRs Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle and handing off to speedster RBs Raheem Mostert and De’Von Achane (7.8 yards per carry). LT Terron Armstead needs to stay healthy. Safety Jevon Holland and CB Jalen Ramsey are elite. Pass-rushing OLB Jaelan Phillips (Achilles) will be on a pitch count early in the season. Campbell, 38, provides veteran leadership. As does Poyer. New DC Anthony Weaver replaces Vic Fangio. Kicker Jason Sanders (24-28 FGs) is dependable, as is PR Braxton Berrios.
Fourth-and-long: The O-line is a huge question mark, most notably at the guard positions. The interior reads: Robert Jones, Aaron Brewer, Liam Eichenberg. EDGE Bradley Chubb (torn ACL) won’t be an early-season factor. Achane needs to stay on the field. Can these guys win in the cold late in the season?
Prediction: 8-9. Speed doesn’t always kill, especially in the cold.
4. Patriots
Coach: Jerod Mayo
2023 record: 3-14 | O/U wins: 4.5
Key additions: QB Jacoby Brissett, RB Antonio Gibson, WR K.J. Osborn, TE Austin Hooper, OT Chukwuma Okorafor, G Nick Leverett, DT Armon Watts, ILB Sione Takitaki, S Jaylinn Hawkins, QB Drake Maye, WR Ja’Lynn Polk, OT Caedan Wallace, G Layden Robinson, WR Javon Baker
Key departures: QB Mac Jones, RB Ezekiel Elliott, TE Mike Gesicki, OT Trent Brown, C James Ferentz, LB Mack Wilson, CB Myles Bryant, CB J.C. Jackson, S Jalen Mills, EDGE Matthew Judon
First-and-goal: Last year’s first-round pick, CB Christian Gonzalez (shoulder) played in only four games but has exciting potential opposite Jonathan Jones. Safeties Jabrill Peppers and Kyle Dugger are solid. Polk, a second-rounder, can be a No. 1 WR. TE Hunter Henry can be a red-zone security blanket. RB Rhamondre Stevenson is looking for more explosive plays, and Gibson (172 career receptions) will be busy out of the backfield.
Fourth-and-long: Bill Belichick is gone, and Mayo is a rookie head coach. Offensive tackle is a problem. Brissett will hold the QB fort until No. 3 overall pick Maye is ready. The receiving corps is subpar. Special teamer Matthew Slater, a Belichick favorite, retired. DT Christian Barmore (blood clots) and Judon (traded to Atlanta) will be missed. Kicker Joey Slye won the job in training camp.
Prediction: 3-14. Growing pains for Maye. The offense is woefully bereft of difference-makers.
